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>Prioritizing safety over everything has kept regulators far away and there haven't been any mishaps that I'm aware of. Maybe I have missed it, but has there b

by slg 6y ago

>Prioritizing safety over everything has kept regulators far away and there haven't been any mishaps that I'm aware of. Maybe I have missed it, but has there been any substantial use of Waymo outside of the Phoenix area? There is a reason why both Uber and Google were targeting that area for testing. It is an area with lots of sun, little precipitation, lots of relatively new, big, and straight roads, no real wildlife that might jump out into the road, and that is notoriously hostile to pedestrians. Is demonstrating a self driving vehicle is safe there truly indicative that it will be safe in the back alleys of Boston's North End when there is a foot of snow on the ground?

Jyaif 6y ago
> an area with lots of sun, little precipitation, lots of relatively new, big, and straight roads, no real wildlife that might jump out into the road, and that is notoriously hostile to pedestrians. You just described a quarter of the US.
- slg 6y ago
  And probably only 10% of the population. But either way, I'm not sure your point. It appears no one has anything close to true self driving. Different companies are attacking the complexities of the problem in difference ways. For example, Tesla is limiting its system by situation while Waymo is limiting it by environment. Neither has been proven safe for the full spectrum of driving and we all know that the biggest problems for self driving are going to be solving those outlier scenarios.
  - 6gvONxR4sf7o 6y ago
    I agree with you mostly, except your definition of self driving. Full self driving limited to the Phoenix metro area counts to me as full self driving. That doesn’t meant squat towards full self driving in different conditions, but if you’re a Phoenix resident, who cares? If it works for the full spectrum of usage for normal people, I’ll count it, even if it’s not all normal people everywhere. If we get something that works everywhere in the US, but not the crowded streets in India, you’d count it, right?
    - slg 6y ago
      Sure, you are fine to take this conversation purely from the reference point of a resident of Phoenix. I can't argue against your definition with that very limited context. I simply think that is a narrow enough viewpoint to not be particularly useful in a larger conversation about self driving vehicles.
gsnedders 6y ago
Waymo also do substantial amounts of testing around Alphabet's HQ in Mountain View and the surrounding area
- slg 6y ago
  According to the state of California, Waymo had less than 1.5 million miles driven in 2019[1]. That is basically nothing when it comes to proving a track record of safety. The fatality rate in California is around 1 per 100 million miles. Waymo's cars can be twice as deadly as humans and there would only be a 3% chance of killing someone in a 1.5 million miles. [1] - https://www.dmv.ca.gov/portal/vehicle-industry-services/autonomous-vehicles/disengagement-reports/ https://www.dmv.ca.gov/portal/vehicle-industry-services/auto...
  - grandmczeb 6y ago
    That's only in California. They have over 20 million miles driven total and its increasing rapidly (10 million of those were just in the past year.) https://venturebeat.com/2020/01/06/waymos-autonomous-cars-have-driven-20-million-miles-on-public-roads https://venturebeat.com/2020/01/06/waymos-autonomous-cars-ha...
    - slg 6y ago
      There is no breakdown there of where these miles occurred. It appears that most of those miles came out of the Phoenix area which leads back to my original point. Either way, 20 million miles is once again a drop in the bucket compared to the number which would indicate these cars are as safe or safer than human drivers. For comparison, Tesla is likely around 4 billion miles with Autopilot. I still wouldn't be comfortable saying definitively that Autopilot is as safe or safer than humans.
      - YZF 6y ago
        You gotta start somewhere. If you have a very limited fleet of self driving cars then maybe it's actually ok if they are not as safe as human drivers as long as the trajectory is towards better safety. I'm sure the very first test car driving anywhere was less safe than a human driver. Each step will lay the foundation baseline for the next step. The Tesla 4 billion miles can't be compared with anything since those aren't really autonomous driving. It's like saying there's a trillion miles on cruise control.
foxtr0t 6y ago
Would you recommend starting AV development in Manhattan for safety, then?
- slg 6y ago
  Obviously not. It makes sense to start with the easiest problems first, I'm just advocating for keeping that perspective that Waymo's success in Phoenix is an easy problem in comparison to a lot of driving environments that would be expected of a truly self driving vehicle.
  - ativzzz 6y ago
    I imagine that these conditions are good for trucks in particular. I highly doubt that these trucks will ever be intended to be driven outside of freerange highway roads.
hourislate 6y ago
A family member drives for one of the largest Trucking companies in NA. They have specialized drivers that take the loads into NYC, Boston, etc. He drops the trailer at a yard outside the city and a city truck and driver take it in. It just works out better for the company since these drivers know their city and that is all they do. It keeps the company from having accident insurance claims. I doubt there will ever be self driving Tractor Trailer type vehicles in any city. It requires some serious skill and intuition about your rig and roads, like where to take the truck wide to complete a right turn without taking down the street light or pedestrian waiting to cross would be a good example.
- sdenton4 6y ago
  This mirrors how ships worked historically, as well. You have ocean navigators, who are great at getting reliably from one continent to another (even without knowing their longitude reliably), and then pilots who know every rock in a particular harbor for the last mile.
- adrianmonk 6y ago
  > serious skill and intuition about your rig and roads, like where to take the truck wide to complete a right turn without taking down the street light or pedestrian waiting to cross I'm actually convinced that maneuvering a large, articulated vehicle is the comparatively easy part. These two videos convinced me AIs can be pretty good at it: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HR4MEh5-paA https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HR4MEh5-paA https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BYPA4ajTQgk https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BYPA4ajTQgk AIs might even have an advantage over humans because they can more easily use cameras on all sides of the truck to maintain awareness of everything going on around them. The AI should be able to predict with good accuracy where each part of the truck will be as the motion progresses because it can do the math, whereas a human has to rely on experience. To me, the real difficulty for AIs is in the higher reasoning, like how you deal with situations (lane closed, vehicle traveling the wrong way, etc.).
travisporter 6y ago
Phoenix is still a very populated place. One question is if they replaced the entire rideshare market in Phoenix, will they make their money back in a reasonable time? Second, you may be moving the goalposts. If the car can drive in Boston, but not in, say, French Guyana, would you still say it's not true self-driving?

by slg 6y ago

Jyaif 6y ago

> an area with lots of sun, little precipitation, lots of relatively new, big, and straight roads, no real wildlife that might jump out into the road, and that is notoriously hostile to pedestrians. You just described a quarter of the US.

slg 6y ago
And probably only 10% of the population. But either way, I'm not sure your point. It appears no one has anything close to true self driving. Different companies are attacking the complexities of the problem in difference ways. For example, Tesla is limiting its system by situation while Waymo is limiting it by environment. Neither has been proven safe for the full spectrum of driving and we all know that the biggest problems for self driving are going to be solving those outlier scenarios.
- 6gvONxR4sf7o 6y ago
  I agree with you mostly, except your definition of self driving. Full self driving limited to the Phoenix metro area counts to me as full self driving. That doesn’t meant squat towards full self driving in different conditions, but if you’re a Phoenix resident, who cares? If it works for the full spectrum of usage for normal people, I’ll count it, even if it’s not all normal people everywhere. If we get something that works everywhere in the US, but not the crowded streets in India, you’d count it, right?
  - slg 6y ago
    Sure, you are fine to take this conversation purely from the reference point of a resident of Phoenix. I can't argue against your definition with that very limited context. I simply think that is a narrow enough viewpoint to not be particularly useful in a larger conversation about self driving vehicles.

gsnedders 6y ago

Waymo also do substantial amounts of testing around Alphabet's HQ in Mountain View and the surrounding area

slg 6y ago
According to the state of California, Waymo had less than 1.5 million miles driven in 2019[1]. That is basically nothing when it comes to proving a track record of safety. The fatality rate in California is around 1 per 100 million miles. Waymo's cars can be twice as deadly as humans and there would only be a 3% chance of killing someone in a 1.5 million miles. [1] - https://www.dmv.ca.gov/portal/vehicle-industry-services/autonomous-vehicles/disengagement-reports/ https://www.dmv.ca.gov/portal/vehicle-industry-services/auto...
- grandmczeb 6y ago
  That's only in California. They have over 20 million miles driven total and its increasing rapidly (10 million of those were just in the past year.) https://venturebeat.com/2020/01/06/waymos-autonomous-cars-have-driven-20-million-miles-on-public-roads https://venturebeat.com/2020/01/06/waymos-autonomous-cars-ha...
  - slg 6y ago
    There is no breakdown there of where these miles occurred. It appears that most of those miles came out of the Phoenix area which leads back to my original point. Either way, 20 million miles is once again a drop in the bucket compared to the number which would indicate these cars are as safe or safer than human drivers. For comparison, Tesla is likely around 4 billion miles with Autopilot. I still wouldn't be comfortable saying definitively that Autopilot is as safe or safer than humans.
    - YZF 6y ago
      You gotta start somewhere. If you have a very limited fleet of self driving cars then maybe it's actually ok if they are not as safe as human drivers as long as the trajectory is towards better safety. I'm sure the very first test car driving anywhere was less safe than a human driver. Each step will lay the foundation baseline for the next step. The Tesla 4 billion miles can't be compared with anything since those aren't really autonomous driving. It's like saying there's a trillion miles on cruise control.

foxtr0t 6y ago

Would you recommend starting AV development in Manhattan for safety, then?

slg 6y ago
Obviously not. It makes sense to start with the easiest problems first, I'm just advocating for keeping that perspective that Waymo's success in Phoenix is an easy problem in comparison to a lot of driving environments that would be expected of a truly self driving vehicle.
- ativzzz 6y ago
  I imagine that these conditions are good for trucks in particular. I highly doubt that these trucks will ever be intended to be driven outside of freerange highway roads.

hourislate 6y ago

A family member drives for one of the largest Trucking companies in NA. They have specialized drivers that take the loads into NYC, Boston, etc. He drops the trailer at a yard outside the city and a city truck and driver take it in. It just works out better for the company since these drivers know their city and that is all they do. It keeps the company from having accident insurance claims. I doubt there will ever be self driving Tractor Trailer type vehicles in any city. It requires some serious skill and intuition about your rig and roads, like where to take the truck wide to complete a right turn without taking down the street light or pedestrian waiting to cross would be a good example.

sdenton4 6y ago
This mirrors how ships worked historically, as well. You have ocean navigators, who are great at getting reliably from one continent to another (even without knowing their longitude reliably), and then pilots who know every rock in a particular harbor for the last mile.
adrianmonk 6y ago
> serious skill and intuition about your rig and roads, like where to take the truck wide to complete a right turn without taking down the street light or pedestrian waiting to cross I'm actually convinced that maneuvering a large, articulated vehicle is the comparatively easy part. These two videos convinced me AIs can be pretty good at it: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HR4MEh5-paA https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HR4MEh5-paA https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BYPA4ajTQgk https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BYPA4ajTQgk AIs might even have an advantage over humans because they can more easily use cameras on all sides of the truck to maintain awareness of everything going on around them. The AI should be able to predict with good accuracy where each part of the truck will be as the motion progresses because it can do the math, whereas a human has to rely on experience. To me, the real difficulty for AIs is in the higher reasoning, like how you deal with situations (lane closed, vehicle traveling the wrong way, etc.).

travisporter 6y ago

Phoenix is still a very populated place. One question is if they replaced the entire rideshare market in Phoenix, will they make their money back in a reasonable time? Second, you may be moving the goalposts. If the car can drive in Boston, but not in, say, French Guyana, would you still say it's not true self-driving?