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Arctic Sea Ice not freezing In October – first time since measurements began
- jka 6y agoNot certain about the credibility of this domain, having not seen it often before - but either way, the trend appears genuine. On this topic, see also: [1] https://grist.org/article/let-it-go-the-arctic-will-never-be-frozen-again/ https://grist.org/article/let-it-go-the-arctic-will-never-be... (plus HN discussion[3]) [2] https://www.bas.ac.uk/media-post/past-evidence-supports-complete-loss-of-arctic-sea-ice-by-2035/ https://www.bas.ac.uk/media-post/past-evidence-supports-comp... [3] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=16468943 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=16468943
- hikerclimber 6y agogood. hopefully it doesn't freeze.
- Rebelgecko 6y agoSeems a bit strange you declare that the ice isn't freezing in October when October isn't over yet. I don't know how to square the headline with the articles claim that the ice growth actually started in September. Unless that's referring to a different region?
- klyrs 6y ago> Also looking at the raw temperatures, we can see the eastern Arctic ocean is actually in positive surface temperatures, which means a low to zero chance of freezing over at this point. In normal conditions, almost the entire Arctic ocean should be at or below the freezing point – 0°C (black color) by the end of October.
- bryanrasmussen 6y agomaybe freezing is a process that if it hasn't gotten to a certain point when you are near the end of October that it will not reach that point? I mean if I'm watching a pot of spaghetti and it is at a certain point halfway through the 5th minute I can say with confidence whether or not it will be done in the 5th minute.
- meragrin_ 6y agoThe water is refreezing. Article and data says it. I'm guessing there was a translation error somewhere for the title.
- soulofmischief 6y agoNo one said it wouldn't refreeze. The thing is we track these transitional periods yearly and for a good while now it's been shifting.
- meragrin_ 6y agoThe comments seem more based on the title "not freezing in October" rather than the content which says it is currently actively freezing more slowly than in recent years.
- furstenheim 6y agoAs they say, warmest October among the past years, coldest October among the ones coming...
- bamboozled 6y agoWhat does this even mean?
- Delfino 6y agoThat this is the warmest October so far. But that statement will be true for subsequent Octobers as well (i.e. it will just keep getting warmer).
- bamboozled 6y agoI re-read it and got it, my brain didn't parse that properly. Thanks :)
- zeckalpha 6y agoWould it be fair to say that the first time you read it, you were... bamboozled?
- djitz 6y ago(•_•) ( •_•)>⌐■-■ (⌐■_■)
- bamboozled 6y agoThat wasn’t obvious enough for you ?
- zalkota 6y agoIt will? Forever? Are you sure? Where’s your source? FAKE NEWS
- taneq 6y ago
- deelowe 6y agoI'm starting to get more than a little worried.
- crossroadsguy 6y agoMakes you wonder how worried and frustrated would have been those people who approached the path of violence to attract attention of the world towards such things. Not that I am condoning those actions.
- throwaway_pdp09 6y agoI wrote to my MP (in the UK) about this shit, saying extinction rebellion had a valid cause and were arguably doing the right thing in their 'civil disobedience' (includes illegal disruption) because bugger all else will work, and would she perhaps like to speak up on their behalf? To say the law being broken is a valid action here? She didn't answer the question. Just platitudes in return. She's lame. Edit: clarifications.
- taneq 6y agoStandard human 'exponential discounting' behaviour. Inaction will cause us all a great deal of discomfort in the vaguely anticipated future, but unpopular action will cause her personally a great deal of discomfort right now.
- throwaway_pdp09 6y agoTrue, but I said in the letters that a politician's job is to take the long term view and make those hard decisions. I want to be really clear about those last 2 points; it's part of what they're there for. Future discount is not an excuse.
- throwaway_pdp09 6y agoI was worrying myself sick at least 20 years ago, trying and failing to get anyone to listen. No-one cared. Now it's too late. The time to worry is when the problem can be dealt with, not when it's blatantly out of control and entering a vicious spiral. Tip: stop worrying, there's no point now.
- chrisco255 6y agoMeanwhile Antarctic sea ice has trended up over the past 5 decades: https://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/ https://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/ Sea ice volume is above 2012 in the Arctic: http://polarportal.dk/en/sea-ice-and-icebergs/sea-ice-thickness-and-volume/ http://polarportal.dk/en/sea-ice-and-icebergs/sea-ice-thickn... And Greenland has had massive, earlier than usual gains in ice this year (growth started in August, weeks earlier than usual): http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/ http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/ Cheyenne, WY saw record breaking cold this past week, reaching 2 degrees Fahrenheit in October, breaking the 1873 October record of 5 degrees Fahrenheit: https://www.wyomingnews.com/news/local_news/cheyenne-sees-as-much-as-a-foot-of-snow-record-breaking-temperatures/article_d1125630-1821-56b9-9308-dcd98c501c1a.html https://www.wyomingnews.com/news/local_news/cheyenne-sees-as... Northern Hemisphere snow mass is nearly 400 Gigatons above average for this time of year: https://globalcryospherewatch.org/state_of_cryo/snow/fmi_swe_tracker.jpg https://globalcryospherewatch.org/state_of_cryo/snow/fmi_swe...
- saiya-jin 6y agoWe had cold spell in central europe for couple of weeks (not sure about the rest of the northern hemisphere), that could explain the extra snow. Now we're back at +-normal temperatures for this time of the year. All of which tells very little about arctic ice - in fact despite this cold spell water is warmer than usual. Not good
- bobthepanda 6y agoGenerally speaking climate change generally is considered to include increased occurrence of severe events. It's also La Niña this year, so the northern US will see a wetter, colder winter while the southwest will be warmer and drier.
- echelon 6y agoDo you believe there are higher than normal levels of carbon present in the atmosphere that are the direct result of human activity? Do you believe this carbon has an impact on climate? Do you believe elevated temperatures worldwide is bad for the biosphere, causes species extinction, habitat destruction, etc.? Do you believe that's bad?
- reizorc 6y agoThere are some very serious consequences of an ice free arctic. Here is a video from Just Have a Think called "Blue Ocean Event : Game Over?" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qo3cznpfIpA https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qo3cznpfIpA
- taneq 6y agoA slightly less alarming take on the consequences of an ice-free Arctic: https://climatetippingpoints.info/2019/04/02/fact-check-will-an-ice-free-arctic-trigger-a-climate-catastrophe/ https://climatetippingpoints.info/2019/04/02/fact-check-will...
- deleted 6y ago[deleted]
- TheButlerian 6y agoPeople get what they want and what they voted for.
- cryptica 6y agoFinally some goods news.
- bamboozled 6y agoDoes anyone know where I might be able to find some good new regarding the climate? I'm not asking for lies to make me feel good, just more regarding technological progress, positive trends in the use of renewables etc. It would be nice to read a news letter to give us some hope for the future. Maybe there is no good news? I find it hard to believe that though.
- gpm 6y agoThis isn't exactly what you're looking for, but climate change is probably a solvable problem with the right technology. My personal favorite idea is a giant set of solar shades [1]. I guess for that you should be watching for starship news at something like [2]. Other examples of relevant technology would include things include like fusion, superconductors (which are really a subset of fusion ;)), co2 extraction (which only makes sense if you have excess energy), and so on. [1] https://medium.com/age-of-awareness/we-need-spacex-bfr-not-just-get-us-to-mars-but-to-save-earth-from-global-warming-4b2c49fb2b27 https://medium.com/age-of-awareness/we-need-spacex-bfr-not-j... [2] https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/ https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/
- shash 6y agoRealclimate is usually good (http://realclimate.org http://realclimate.org)
- pjc50 6y agoThat looks excellent. I'd even count the mid-2000s web design as a positive. Reminds me of http://theoildrum.com/special/archives http://theoildrum.com/special/archives
- jesperlang 6y agoDaily overview of a broad range of data. Just look at that hot blob over the arctic and switch to sea ice view..: https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx/DailySummary/#t2anom https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx/DailySummary/#t2anom For daily arctic sea ice updates (where you can clearly see that the regrowth is very slow for october): https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/ https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/
- beowulfey 6y agoThe way things are going the GitHub Arctic Code Vault isn’t going to be so cold anymore.
- taneq 6y agoThe 'Doomsday Seed Vault' needed repairs because the permafrost around it thawed and flooded it: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-climatechange-norway-vault-idUSKCN18G0QH https://www.reuters.com/article/us-climatechange-norway-vaul... So yeah, relying on permafrost being 'perma' seems a little unwise these days.
- beerandt 6y agoNo, permafrost was removed, not thawed. And it was construction related, not climate. Construction removed the permafrost, and heat from electrical systems and occupation have prevented it from reforming. But this also implies that no liquid water was expected, which is false. Even places with permafrost experience surface thaw and runoff. The fact that the vault design included a drainage system proves that above-freezing temperatures were expected. The problem was rain/runoff/melt water freezing too fast once it got passed the entrance, and creating ice dams and similar blockages. Combined with an entrance that is warmer (sometimes above freezing) than the deeper facility (always below freezing), and you start to see the problem, since liquid water flows down. When those problems occurred, the drainage system couldn't function properly, which caused addl flooding. Ice dam removal required humans, machinery, and work, which added heat, which made the entrance warmer... And all of a sudden you have a double feedback loop. It was a bad engineering design, but not because they assumed the wrong temperature(s). And nothing to do with climate change. Climate change is misleadingly implied by the absence of permafrost. Ironically, slightly warmer temperatures might have solved the design flaws, if it prevented ice from forming and allowed water to drain before freezing.
- baq 6y agothe fossil industry is already looking at new places to drill in once the ice recedes fully. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Azolla_event https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Azolla_event The Azolla event is a scenario hypothesized to have occurred in the middle Eocene epoch, around 49 million years ago, when blooms of the freshwater fern Azolla are thought to have happened in the Arctic Ocean. As they sank to the stagnant sea floor, they were incorporated into the sediment; the resulting draw-down of carbon dioxide has been speculated to have helped transform the planet from a "greenhouse Earth" state, hot enough for turtles and palm trees to prosper at the poles, to the current icehouse Earth known as the Late Cenozoic Ice Age. Economic considerations [...] The burial of large amounts of organic material provides the source rock for oil, so given the right thermal history, the preserved Azolla blooms might have been converted to oil or gas. (https://www.nytimes.com/2004/11/30/science/earth/under-all-that-ice-maybe-oil.html https://www.nytimes.com/2004/11/30/science/earth/under-all-t...)
- TheAdamAndChe 6y agoAs a side note, I'm hopeful that the genetic modification of the Azolla to be salt water resistant could make similar mass carbon sequestration possible in somewhere like the Dead Sea. I haven't heard of any organization working on it yet though.
- baq 6y agothe fact that it took a ~800k years to reduce atmospheric CO2 from 3500 to 650 might have something to do with it... IF we somehow found a way of getting this much water in a single place (flood half of sahara?) it would 1) take ~30k years to lower ppm back to 300 if we stopped emissions and 2) it would probably kill the amazon rainforests which would lose its saharan dust fertilizer. if you don't do it in sahara, you have to get this much fertilizer from somewhere else. nevertheless people are exploring azolla: https://www.climatefoundation.org/azolla.html https://www.climatefoundation.org/azolla.html
- koheripbal 6y agoCanadian farm land real estate prices have also skyrocketed. In general, humanity is shifting to adapt to climate change.
- sai_c 6y agoI know I'm going to get downvoted, but may I quote Wikipedia: "An ice age is a long period of reduction in the temperature of the Earth's surface and atmosphere, resulting in the presence or expansion of continental and polar ice sheets and alpine glaciers. Earth's climate alternates between ice ages and greenhouse periods, during which there are no glaciers on the planet. Earth is currently in the Quaternary glaciation, known in popular terminology as the Ice Age.[1] Individual pulses of cold climate within an ice age are termed "glacial periods" (or, alternatively, "glacials", "glaciations", "glacial stages", "stadials", "stades", or colloquially, "ice ages"), and intermittent warm periods within an ice age are called "interglacials" or "interstadials", with both climatic pulses part of the Quaternary or other periods in Earth's history.[2]" Link: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ice_age https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ice_age No matter the cause, no ice in the polar regions is actually the norm. Sure, bad consequences for humanity are real, but in the (very) long run, we would have to face them anyway (if humanity still exists).
- gpm 6y agoThe concern isn't so much the fact the ice is melting as the rate that it is melting. If this happened at the normal geological timescales we would have plenty of time to adapt.
- eisbaar 6y agoFair enough, but then such headlines are misleading or useless, as they don't tell us anything about the rate. They suggest melting ice in general is cause for concern, when really it is expected because of the ice age cycles. Not saying the rate is not concerning, but then they should write about the rate, not about extreme measurements.
- gpm 6y agoThey do tell us about the rate, because the rate should be so slow as to not be perceptible.
- 6y ago
- ykevinator 6y agoClimate change is the new jesus. If you have faith it will just be true that there's no problem here.
- BrendanD 6y agoThe icing on the cake: https://www.theguardian.com/science/2020/oct/27/sleeping-giant-arctic-methane-deposits-starting-to-release-scientists-find https://www.theguardian.com/science/2020/oct/27/sleeping-gia... Edit: Trying hard to not say something snippy about climate change deniers, with great difficulty. Let me simply suggest possible correlations between climate change denial, coronavirus denial and anti-vaccination.
- irrational 6y agoWe just need a general “in denial” term for them. Denialers? Egyptians? (Because they are in denial).
- Oletros 6y agoA relief https://twitter.com/UnlikelyWorlds/status/1321369938741907457 https://twitter.com/UnlikelyWorlds/status/132136993874190745...