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The challenge is that we don't really know where the number of immune or semi-immune individuals comes in order to achieve "herd immunity" from Covid. Nature h
by atourgates 6y ago
The challenge is that we don't really know where the number of immune or semi-immune individuals comes in order to achieve "herd immunity" from Covid.
Nature has a good article that goes into depth a bit here: https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02948-4 https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02948-4
Basically, there are reasonable estimates that the range could be anywhere from 20% - 70%.
The effect also greatly depends on which portion of the population gets vaccinated. If (in an imaginary world) the most at-risk 50% of the population got vaccinated, we could reasonably expect Covid to actually become something like the flu.
Finally, I expect this is something that'll gain acceptance over time. There are some not unreasonable factors that could cause people to be nervous about a Covid vaccine initially, that will be softened over time. Things like it being developed under the supervision of politicians who could be motivated to rush it out, or just being developed faster than any vaccine ever.
Or, on the flipside, continued travel restrictions for individuals who haven't been vaccinated. Americans traveling to certain tropical countries have been required to get specific vaccines for years, I wouldn't be surprised if over the next few, travel to Europe or even Canada requires a Covid vaccine.