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What you’re describing as “reckless behavior” is just normal behavior in a non-covid world. If vaccine candidates are social distancing, wearing masks, and stay

by cwhiz 6y ago

What you’re describing as “reckless behavior” is just normal behavior in a non-covid world. If vaccine candidates are social distancing, wearing masks, and staying home how will the researchers get the data they need? If you are following “covid best practices” it is extremely unlikely that you will contract covid. Would the researchers not want people to go out and live their normal lives?

jberryman 6y ago
The point is if the two groups behave differently wrt risk then the trial is probably ruined. Maybe you're assuming the vaccine will be 100% effective; experts I've heard are saying to expect something like the flu shot.
- bluGill 6y ago
  Experts need to control to control expections. The flu shot like 50% effenceny is a possibility, and we know anti vaxxers latch onto that with confused statistics. The flu shot is poorly effective because the flu mutates though, covid is more stable so odds are that the vaccine will be more effective, but we are still playing odds of something we don't know, so it is best to assume the worse.
  - DiogenesKynikos 6y ago
    The flu vaccine is more effective at preventing serious disease than it is at preventing infection. Even a vaccine that only prevents you from getting seriously ill can be incredibly useful. The inactivated polio vaccine, for example, does not prevent infection. It just prevents disease. That means that it cannot confer herd immunity (vaccinated people can act as asymptomatic carriers, leaving unvaccinated people at risk), but for most people who are vaccinated, it eliminates the most serious consequence of polio infection - paralysis. The SARS-CoV-2 vaccines might end up being the same, conferring protection from disease but not from infection, and even that would be important.
- cwhiz 6y ago
  Well in this scenario I am suggesting that a placebo is a waste of time and we don't need two groups. I am not assuming the vaccine will be 100% effective, or even effective at all. But in order to get meaningful data you can't have all your participants taking the most extreme precautions. The vast majority of American citizens have not, and will not, get Covid.
  - DiogenesKynikos 6y ago
    A few percent of Americans have been infected with SARS-CoV-2. In a study of 30,000 people, enough people will get infected within a few months to give good statistics. At the current rate of confirmed cases in the US, you'd expect about 10 people in the study to get infected each day (fewer if half of them are vaccinated and the vaccine works). Without a placebo group, how will you measure effectiveness and safety? You need to monitor a statistically equivalent group of people to determine the difference in rates of infection and disease, and to look for side-effects.
kortilla 6y ago
> If you are following “covid best practices” it is extremely unlikely that you will contract covid. It’s spreading like wildfire to people following best practices too all over the world. It only takes a small subset not following these practices to spread it all over.
DiogenesKynikos 6y ago
You need both groups to behave in the same way. Phase III trials are enrolling enough people (tens of thousands) so that a sizeable number will likely contract the virus within a few months. They specifically run these trials in places where the virus is spreading (this is why Chinese vaccines are being tested outside China, in places like Brazil). > Would the researchers not want people to go out and live their normal lives? That would be great for the trials (assuming both the vaccinated and placebo groups behaved identically). But most people would consider it unethical for researchers to encourage the trial participants to increase their likelihood of exposure to the virus. People who sign up for vaccine trials are not signing up to get CoVID-19.
whimsicalism 6y ago
Just think critically for a few minutes before commenting your next new objection to see if you can come up with what the problem might be.
Polylactic_acid 6y ago
The researchers only need a group that acts in the same way as the test subjects. Plenty of people will still catch covid while being careful.

by cwhiz 6y ago

jberryman 6y ago

The point is if the two groups behave differently wrt risk then the trial is probably ruined. Maybe you're assuming the vaccine will be 100% effective; experts I've heard are saying to expect something like the flu shot.

bluGill 6y ago
Experts need to control to control expections. The flu shot like 50% effenceny is a possibility, and we know anti vaxxers latch onto that with confused statistics. The flu shot is poorly effective because the flu mutates though, covid is more stable so odds are that the vaccine will be more effective, but we are still playing odds of something we don't know, so it is best to assume the worse.
- DiogenesKynikos 6y ago
  The flu vaccine is more effective at preventing serious disease than it is at preventing infection. Even a vaccine that only prevents you from getting seriously ill can be incredibly useful. The inactivated polio vaccine, for example, does not prevent infection. It just prevents disease. That means that it cannot confer herd immunity (vaccinated people can act as asymptomatic carriers, leaving unvaccinated people at risk), but for most people who are vaccinated, it eliminates the most serious consequence of polio infection - paralysis. The SARS-CoV-2 vaccines might end up being the same, conferring protection from disease but not from infection, and even that would be important.
cwhiz 6y ago
Well in this scenario I am suggesting that a placebo is a waste of time and we don't need two groups. I am not assuming the vaccine will be 100% effective, or even effective at all. But in order to get meaningful data you can't have all your participants taking the most extreme precautions. The vast majority of American citizens have not, and will not, get Covid.
- DiogenesKynikos 6y ago
  A few percent of Americans have been infected with SARS-CoV-2. In a study of 30,000 people, enough people will get infected within a few months to give good statistics. At the current rate of confirmed cases in the US, you'd expect about 10 people in the study to get infected each day (fewer if half of them are vaccinated and the vaccine works). Without a placebo group, how will you measure effectiveness and safety? You need to monitor a statistically equivalent group of people to determine the difference in rates of infection and disease, and to look for side-effects.

kortilla 6y ago

> If you are following “covid best practices” it is extremely unlikely that you will contract covid. It’s spreading like wildfire to people following best practices too all over the world. It only takes a small subset not following these practices to spread it all over.

DiogenesKynikos 6y ago

You need both groups to behave in the same way. Phase III trials are enrolling enough people (tens of thousands) so that a sizeable number will likely contract the virus within a few months. They specifically run these trials in places where the virus is spreading (this is why Chinese vaccines are being tested outside China, in places like Brazil). > Would the researchers not want people to go out and live their normal lives? That would be great for the trials (assuming both the vaccinated and placebo groups behaved identically). But most people would consider it unethical for researchers to encourage the trial participants to increase their likelihood of exposure to the virus. People who sign up for vaccine trials are not signing up to get CoVID-19.

whimsicalism 6y ago

Just think critically for a few minutes before commenting your next new objection to see if you can come up with what the problem might be.

Polylactic_acid 6y ago

The researchers only need a group that acts in the same way as the test subjects. Plenty of people will still catch covid while being careful.