Sure, but that's not necessarily wrong. Any decision in the model will change Trump's odds in one way or another. The question is if it makes it closer to the (

Sure, but that's not necessarily wrong. Any decision in the model will change Trump's odds in one way or another. The question is if it makes it closer to the (unknowable) real odds. Just because intuition says it should be longer odds for Trump doesn't mean that's right.