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If I ask you today, would you choose A or B? A) 5 chocolate bars on January 1st 2021 B) 6 chocolate bars on January 2nd 2021 Almost anyone would choose B, be
by rahimnathwani 6y ago
If I ask you today, would you choose A or B?
A) 5 chocolate bars on January 1st 2021
B) 6 chocolate bars on January 2nd 2021
Almost anyone would choose B, because:
- the risk of not getting paid is almost insignificantly different between those two days, and
- the value of a chocolate bar will not drop much in a day
But, if offered the choice on January 1st, many people would choose to have 5 bars immediately, rather than wait a day for 6 bars.
Now, you're right, this might be because you're worried about getting paid, and 0 days' risk vs 1 days' risk is quite different. The famous marshmallow test is apparently an example of this: for the kids who had experienced less stable/reliable circumstances, it seemed crazy to wait and risk getting nothing.
But, even when the counterparty risk is ~zero, people exhibit similar time-inconsistent preferences.
- mehrdadn 6y agoOh definitely. I'd even go farther and say once January 1 comes, if I'd chosen B earlier, I'd be happy I hadn't chosen A—I'd already waited a while, so an extra day would seem like nothing. But if the choice was first given on that day, I would still choose A... even though the situation I'd subsequently end up in would be exactly the same in both cases moving forward.
- srtjstjsj 6y agoTransaction costs say it's not worth double the transaction costs for 1 more chocolate bar