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This is a good point. I explained it to my mother with an analogy to a cruise ship heading toward shore at full speed. Everyone knows this means the ship will r

This is a good point. I explained it to my mother with an analogy to a cruise ship heading toward shore at full speed. Everyone knows this means the ship will run aground, but few appreciate that given the mass (and thus momentum) the ship would travel far inland just scraping across the ground. The coming economic response to the pandemic has the potential to be like that, basically 10x the 2009 "great recession" and a lot of second and third order effects. Hard to predict what to do and it's nice to hear the Fed doing their research. The TARP program in 2009 was pretty creative and managed a pretty big thwack without nearly as much pain as their could have been.

deleted 6y ago
[deleted]
vpass10 6y ago
Videos on YouTube actually show that large ships stop astonishingly quickly when driven onto shore (mostly scrap yards).
- ChuckMcM 6y ago
  (mostly scrap yards) -- generally much less mass than a ship that is more seaworthy (a lot of early salvage happens before they get to the scrap shore, ships aren't fully loaded, look at their waterline in the videos). And most importantly much much less velocity (1/2mv^2 goes down rapidly with slower velocity). What is is truly impressive is that they estimate the mass, and know very closely what speed to get them too in order to solidly ground them without wasting a lot of energy getting them going faster than necessary.
Moru 6y ago
The analogy fails to account for the captains investment in wings that makes the ship fly over land (remake offices into appartments with dirt cheap labour).
jsjohnst 6y ago
> analogy to a cruise ship heading toward shore at full speed. Everyone knows this means the ship will run aground, but few appreciate that given the mass (and thus momentum) the ship would travel far inland just scraping across the ground. Are you sure you aren’t basing that analogy on the movie Speed 2?
imperfectcats 6y ago
It is already worse than the GFC in 2009. UK GDP dipped 21.7% in Q2, NZ ~13%, and the US ~10%. https://ourworldindata.org/covid-health-economy https://ourworldindata.org/covid-health-economy Where it ends is anyone's guess, and the worst part will be the second and third order effects it won't be super easy to predict. Things like pension/401K/Superannuation funds with high Commercial real estate exposure leading to reduced retirement income, state pension funds that suffer as big US cities see revenue plummet after the population moves, European cities with vastly worse economies - the UK with London hurts there the most - and the cyclical effect of Italian demand reducing French production, reducing French demand reducing Italian production, ad nauseam. This will be a multi-speed problem, with some countries, cities, counties, suburbs & streets affected far more than others. If it wasn't so tragic it would be a truly fascinating thing to watch unfold.
- divbzero 6y ago
  It is tragic. You’d think that drawing on all our cumulative knowledge and wisdom from the past, we could handle global crises better than we do today. But we clearly have a long ways to go.
- paganel 6y ago
  > Things like pension/401K/Superannuation funds with high Commercial real estate exposure leading to reduced retirement income, An interesting second (or even third) order effect of the 2008-2009 financial meltdown was the collapse of many German state banks (Landesbanks I think they're called) which had invested massively in US-based CDCs and the like. I don't think many people would have predicted that happening in 2005-2006.

deleted 6y ago

[deleted]

vpass10 6y ago

Videos on YouTube actually show that large ships stop astonishingly quickly when driven onto shore (mostly scrap yards).

ChuckMcM 6y ago
(mostly scrap yards) -- generally much less mass than a ship that is more seaworthy (a lot of early salvage happens before they get to the scrap shore, ships aren't fully loaded, look at their waterline in the videos). And most importantly much much less velocity (1/2mv^2 goes down rapidly with slower velocity). What is is truly impressive is that they estimate the mass, and know very closely what speed to get them too in order to solidly ground them without wasting a lot of energy getting them going faster than necessary.

Moru 6y ago

The analogy fails to account for the captains investment in wings that makes the ship fly over land (remake offices into appartments with dirt cheap labour).

jsjohnst 6y ago

> analogy to a cruise ship heading toward shore at full speed. Everyone knows this means the ship will run aground, but few appreciate that given the mass (and thus momentum) the ship would travel far inland just scraping across the ground. Are you sure you aren’t basing that analogy on the movie Speed 2?

imperfectcats 6y ago

It is already worse than the GFC in 2009. UK GDP dipped 21.7% in Q2, NZ ~13%, and the US ~10%. https://ourworldindata.org/covid-health-economy https://ourworldindata.org/covid-health-economy Where it ends is anyone's guess, and the worst part will be the second and third order effects it won't be super easy to predict. Things like pension/401K/Superannuation funds with high Commercial real estate exposure leading to reduced retirement income, state pension funds that suffer as big US cities see revenue plummet after the population moves, European cities with vastly worse economies - the UK with London hurts there the most - and the cyclical effect of Italian demand reducing French production, reducing French demand reducing Italian production, ad nauseam. This will be a multi-speed problem, with some countries, cities, counties, suburbs & streets affected far more than others. If it wasn't so tragic it would be a truly fascinating thing to watch unfold.

divbzero 6y ago
It is tragic. You’d think that drawing on all our cumulative knowledge and wisdom from the past, we could handle global crises better than we do today. But we clearly have a long ways to go.
paganel 6y ago
> Things like pension/401K/Superannuation funds with high Commercial real estate exposure leading to reduced retirement income, An interesting second (or even third) order effect of the 2008-2009 financial meltdown was the collapse of many German state banks (Landesbanks I think they're called) which had invested massively in US-based CDCs and the like. I don't think many people would have predicted that happening in 2005-2006.