6 ms·

Hasn’t this infection already run its course? Ignoring the fact that we’re way past the peak rate of infections (*hospitalizations, not simply cases), the likel

Hasn’t this infection already run its course? Ignoring the fact that we’re way past the peak rate of infections (*hospitalizations, not simply cases), the likelihood of fatality is somewhere in the 0.3-0.01% range. That doesn’t mean it’s harmless just that we’ve dealt with infections of this scale before with orders of magnitude less disruption to life. I’m no fan of trump but looking at the data I’m having a hard time understanding why this is still a topline global concern. If I am factually incorrect please point out how.

elihu 6y ago
Worldometer currently shows the rate of new infections worldwide increasing sharply. In the U.S. we just surpassed our record of new infections per day set back in July, with an upward slope that's going to continue to who knows where. There are some places that have Covid-19 reasonably under control, but on average we're in the worst of it right now as far as we know. (The peak in spring might possibly have been worse, we just didn't have adequate testing at the time to know for sure. But right now we know cases are on the rise, and it's not just large population centers but rural areas too.) https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
thaumasiotes 6y ago
> but looking at the data I’m having a hard time understanding why this is still a topline global concern Same reason as "Summer of the Shark". (When US media exhaustively covered shark attacks, during a year when shark attacks were a little below average.) It's news, so there's a lot of coverage, which makes it news.
- tathougies 6y ago
  Yeah, except this summer of shark is being used to drive people into poverty and has caused non-COVID deaths and harm to many more, such as the deceased babies unable to receive medical attention in Australia due to the interstate border closures.
  - loktarogar 6y ago
    They were able to receive the medical attention, but returning them would have been complicated - so the powers decided to just not do it. A dumb decision that could have been made outside of COVID times for any number of reasons.
    - foobar1962 6y ago
      I’m an Aussie and that's the first I heard about babies dying due to border closures (but I could have missed the memo). Far more scandalous (and getting more media coverage) is the fact that Victorian football teams had to relocate to Queensland to continue their training.
      - lazyasciiart 6y ago
        Twin baby dies during childbirth after a rural woman has to wait for transport to Sydney instead of Brisbane -https://www.sbs.com.au/news/unborn-twin-baby-dies-in-nsw-after-queensland-border-confusion https://www.sbs.com.au/news/unborn-twin-baby-dies-in-nsw-aft... 4 babies with cardiac problems have died in Adelaide, but it appears to have been a decision in SA not to send them to the pediatric cardiac unit in Melbourne (their normal referral practice) or anywhere else - victoria says they weren't asked and would not have rejected them. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-10-22/unanswered-questions-over-baby-deaths-at-adelaide-hospital/12801108 https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-10-22/unanswered-questions-...
        tathougies 6y ago
        They didn't ask because they didn't think they'd be taken. People's perception of closures impacts what they do perhaps more than the legal enforcement.
        loktarogar 6y ago
        People are still being allowed in and out of Melbourne with valid reasons. "oh they'd never be let in anyway" is a medical board review, loss of medical license, probably worse kind of situation.
exogeny 6y ago
Not an expert by any means, but on a quick Google, it appears that the most aggressive estimate of how many people have gotten the virus is 10%[0]. Herd immunity requires a much, much higher number than that -- especially if we want our lives to go back to normal -- which is why you see the Rt rates[1] and rate of new cases going up very sharply, even if you account for the reporting lag. EDIT: This thread is already getting brigaded by people who apparently think of this as a hoax or some kind of conspiracy so I'm going to leave and take my citations and facts from the article with me. [0]: https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/covid-19-may-have-infected-10-percent-world-s-population-n1242118 https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/covid-19-may-have-infecte... [1]: https://rt.live https://rt.live (US-centric)
- henrikschroder 6y ago
  > Herd immunity requires a much, much higher number than that The jury is very, very much out on that. The 70% number bandied about is extremely naively calculated, it assumes 0 pre-existing resistance or immunity (Which we now know exists), and it assumes all humans are homogenous sphere-shaped balls floating around in a gaseous society, which is also obviously not true. There are countless reports and studies on transmission among children in school settings, and they pretty much unilaterally state that there's very little spread happening there, contrary to everyone's "gut feeling" about kids being snot-nosed petri dishes.
  - mattycakes 6y ago
    Yeah, the article completely disputes this point. I suggest you read the section titled "How high is the threshold for SARS-CoV-2?"
    - henrikschroder 6y ago
      > Yeah, the article completely disputes this point. No, the article explicitly says "Estimates of the threshold for SARS-CoV-2 range from 10% to 70% or even more", and then it sort of handwaves away any studies showing lower numbers, and highlights the ones showing the higher numbers. That is pretty much the definition of the jury being out on the matter.
est31 6y ago
Your fatality rate number is too low. Tens of millions of people would die a preventable death if we let it run its course, and many more would get disabilities from the disease. The economic cost would be tremendous.
- deleted 6y ago
  [deleted]
- anoncake 6y ago
  > many more would get disabilities from the disease. That's a myth. Even "long" Covid only lasts for a few months.
  - est31 6y ago
    There are people who lost limbs because of clotting. Just imagine you wake up and don't have any legs any more. Like in a horror movie. Also, disability doesn't have to be permanent. Broke your leg and need a wheelchair? You're still disabled for the duration you need the wheelchair. ARDS recovery caused by COVID can take months.
    - anoncake 6y ago
      > There are people who lost limbs because of clotting. How many? > Also, disability doesn't have to be permanent. Broke your leg and need a wheelchair? You're still disabled for the duration you need the wheelchair. Why are you arguing semantics instead of writing something constructive? Yes, technically you are disabled if you have "a physical or mental condition that limits [your] movements, senses, or activities". That obviously happens to everyone who gets sick.
anticristi 6y ago
My understanding is that the virus is a pretty tricky one: Its fatality rate is low enough to spread rather unnoticed, but high enough to kill vulnerable people. Given its exponential spread, there is a risk that letting it completely uncontrolled will very quickly fill hospital beds and that's when fatality rate becomes high. Edit: I'm unsure why OP was downvoted. The question is legitimate and deserves an answer.
- cheschire 6y ago
  It's a legitimate question that has been asked every hour of every day by some person in the english speaking world, and therefore is highly searchable.
  - anticristi 6y ago
    Thanks for the clarification. I'm split on such issues. On one hand, it's tiring to keep putting out fires. On the other hand, I feel the answer one gets depends too heavily on what "side" of the Internet the search algorithm placed you, so it's not only OP's fault that he didn't get the right answer yet.
    - foobar1962 6y ago
      > ... it's not only OP's fault that he didn't get the right answer yet. With respect, people should be looking at facts and coming to their own answers/conclusions. That strategy is more immune (sorry) from search-algorithm errors.
- CyberRabbi 6y ago
  I understand that concept. If we acknowledge there is a well understood set of people who are unusually vulnerable to this otherwise low-fatality rate infection, why is there still such a large disruption to the general population? Why not simply take precautions only with that Relatively small vulnerable subset?
  - mattycakes 6y ago
getfactsright 6y ago
Wow. 7.5 months in and people still just spreading absolute nonsense on this website. Try getting the basic facts right. The US is a day or two away from beating our all-time moving-7-day average. We're currently setting new daily records for infection levels. The EU isn't much better off. I also already knew this just from the bare minimum amount of attention I'm paying to the news, and then sought confirmation from the CDC to back it up. If only others could be bothered. https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrends... Look in the bottom left hand corner, just skim through the "new cases" and "7day moving averages" through out the last 8 months. And actually the graph is showing it visually, you can literally just look at it and see the blue spike ... the highest daily infection rate yet, and the weekly trend line is moving up too. Basic, basic, basic facts.
tzs 6y ago
> Hasn’t this infection already run its course? The US is averaging more confirmed new cases per day now than it has at any prior time, and the rate is going up. Here's a graph [1]. [1] http://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/?chart=countries-normalized&highlight=United%20States&show=25-lg&y=both&scale=log&data=cases-daily-7&data-source=jhu&xaxis=left#countries-normalized http://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/?chart=countri...
- CyberRabbi 6y ago
  What about deaths? Hospitalizations?
  - elihu 6y ago
    Deaths are mostly holding steady or gradually rising at about a thousand a day in the U.S., but it usually takes a few weeks for an increase in the number of cases to be reflected in the death statistics. In general, therapeutics are better than they were at the start. Fewer infected people need ventilators and fewer of them are dying. I don't know what the details are, but apparently doctors are learning what works and what doesn't.
  - lazyasciiart 6y ago
    Hospitals in Utah, Idaho and Texas are full. The numbers aren't nearly as high as they have been in previous peaks, but they're on a steep upward slope https://covidtracking.com/data/charts/us-currently-hospitalized https://covidtracking.com/data/charts/us-currently-hospitali...

elihu 6y ago

Worldometer currently shows the rate of new infections worldwide increasing sharply. In the U.S. we just surpassed our record of new infections per day set back in July, with an upward slope that's going to continue to who knows where. There are some places that have Covid-19 reasonably under control, but on average we're in the worst of it right now as far as we know. (The peak in spring might possibly have been worse, we just didn't have adequate testing at the time to know for sure. But right now we know cases are on the rise, and it's not just large population centers but rural areas too.) https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

thaumasiotes 6y ago

> but looking at the data I’m having a hard time understanding why this is still a topline global concern Same reason as "Summer of the Shark". (When US media exhaustively covered shark attacks, during a year when shark attacks were a little below average.) It's news, so there's a lot of coverage, which makes it news.

tathougies 6y ago
Yeah, except this summer of shark is being used to drive people into poverty and has caused non-COVID deaths and harm to many more, such as the deceased babies unable to receive medical attention in Australia due to the interstate border closures.
- loktarogar 6y ago
  They were able to receive the medical attention, but returning them would have been complicated - so the powers decided to just not do it. A dumb decision that could have been made outside of COVID times for any number of reasons.
  - foobar1962 6y ago
    I’m an Aussie and that's the first I heard about babies dying due to border closures (but I could have missed the memo). Far more scandalous (and getting more media coverage) is the fact that Victorian football teams had to relocate to Queensland to continue their training.
    - lazyasciiart 6y ago
      Twin baby dies during childbirth after a rural woman has to wait for transport to Sydney instead of Brisbane -https://www.sbs.com.au/news/unborn-twin-baby-dies-in-nsw-after-queensland-border-confusion https://www.sbs.com.au/news/unborn-twin-baby-dies-in-nsw-aft... 4 babies with cardiac problems have died in Adelaide, but it appears to have been a decision in SA not to send them to the pediatric cardiac unit in Melbourne (their normal referral practice) or anywhere else - victoria says they weren't asked and would not have rejected them. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-10-22/unanswered-questions-over-baby-deaths-at-adelaide-hospital/12801108 https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-10-22/unanswered-questions-...
      - tathougies 6y ago
        They didn't ask because they didn't think they'd be taken. People's perception of closures impacts what they do perhaps more than the legal enforcement.
        loktarogar 6y ago
        People are still being allowed in and out of Melbourne with valid reasons. "oh they'd never be let in anyway" is a medical board review, loss of medical license, probably worse kind of situation.

exogeny 6y ago

Not an expert by any means, but on a quick Google, it appears that the most aggressive estimate of how many people have gotten the virus is 10%[0]. Herd immunity requires a much, much higher number than that -- especially if we want our lives to go back to normal -- which is why you see the Rt rates[1] and rate of new cases going up very sharply, even if you account for the reporting lag. EDIT: This thread is already getting brigaded by people who apparently think of this as a hoax or some kind of conspiracy so I'm going to leave and take my citations and facts from the article with me. [0]: https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/covid-19-may-have-infected-10-percent-world-s-population-n1242118 https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/covid-19-may-have-infecte... [1]: https://rt.live https://rt.live (US-centric)

henrikschroder 6y ago
> Herd immunity requires a much, much higher number than that The jury is very, very much out on that. The 70% number bandied about is extremely naively calculated, it assumes 0 pre-existing resistance or immunity (Which we now know exists), and it assumes all humans are homogenous sphere-shaped balls floating around in a gaseous society, which is also obviously not true. There are countless reports and studies on transmission among children in school settings, and they pretty much unilaterally state that there's very little spread happening there, contrary to everyone's "gut feeling" about kids being snot-nosed petri dishes.
- mattycakes 6y ago
  Yeah, the article completely disputes this point. I suggest you read the section titled "How high is the threshold for SARS-CoV-2?"
  - henrikschroder 6y ago
    > Yeah, the article completely disputes this point. No, the article explicitly says "Estimates of the threshold for SARS-CoV-2 range from 10% to 70% or even more", and then it sort of handwaves away any studies showing lower numbers, and highlights the ones showing the higher numbers. That is pretty much the definition of the jury being out on the matter.

est31 6y ago

Your fatality rate number is too low. Tens of millions of people would die a preventable death if we let it run its course, and many more would get disabilities from the disease. The economic cost would be tremendous.

deleted 6y ago
[deleted]
anoncake 6y ago
> many more would get disabilities from the disease. That's a myth. Even "long" Covid only lasts for a few months.
- est31 6y ago
  There are people who lost limbs because of clotting. Just imagine you wake up and don't have any legs any more. Like in a horror movie. Also, disability doesn't have to be permanent. Broke your leg and need a wheelchair? You're still disabled for the duration you need the wheelchair. ARDS recovery caused by COVID can take months.
  - anoncake 6y ago
    > There are people who lost limbs because of clotting. How many? > Also, disability doesn't have to be permanent. Broke your leg and need a wheelchair? You're still disabled for the duration you need the wheelchair. Why are you arguing semantics instead of writing something constructive? Yes, technically you are disabled if you have "a physical or mental condition that limits [your] movements, senses, or activities". That obviously happens to everyone who gets sick.

anticristi 6y ago

My understanding is that the virus is a pretty tricky one: Its fatality rate is low enough to spread rather unnoticed, but high enough to kill vulnerable people. Given its exponential spread, there is a risk that letting it completely uncontrolled will very quickly fill hospital beds and that's when fatality rate becomes high. Edit: I'm unsure why OP was downvoted. The question is legitimate and deserves an answer.

cheschire 6y ago
It's a legitimate question that has been asked every hour of every day by some person in the english speaking world, and therefore is highly searchable.
- anticristi 6y ago
  Thanks for the clarification. I'm split on such issues. On one hand, it's tiring to keep putting out fires. On the other hand, I feel the answer one gets depends too heavily on what "side" of the Internet the search algorithm placed you, so it's not only OP's fault that he didn't get the right answer yet.
  - foobar1962 6y ago
    > ... it's not only OP's fault that he didn't get the right answer yet. With respect, people should be looking at facts and coming to their own answers/conclusions. That strategy is more immune (sorry) from search-algorithm errors.
CyberRabbi 6y ago
I understand that concept. If we acknowledge there is a well understood set of people who are unusually vulnerable to this otherwise low-fatality rate infection, why is there still such a large disruption to the general population? Why not simply take precautions only with that Relatively small vulnerable subset?
- mattycakes 6y ago

getfactsright 6y ago

Wow. 7.5 months in and people still just spreading absolute nonsense on this website. Try getting the basic facts right. The US is a day or two away from beating our all-time moving-7-day average. We're currently setting new daily records for infection levels. The EU isn't much better off. I also already knew this just from the bare minimum amount of attention I'm paying to the news, and then sought confirmation from the CDC to back it up. If only others could be bothered. https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrends... Look in the bottom left hand corner, just skim through the "new cases" and "7day moving averages" through out the last 8 months. And actually the graph is showing it visually, you can literally just look at it and see the blue spike ... the highest daily infection rate yet, and the weekly trend line is moving up too. Basic, basic, basic facts.

tzs 6y ago

> Hasn’t this infection already run its course? The US is averaging more confirmed new cases per day now than it has at any prior time, and the rate is going up. Here's a graph [1]. [1] http://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/?chart=countries-normalized&highlight=United%20States&show=25-lg&y=both&scale=log&data=cases-daily-7&data-source=jhu&xaxis=left#countries-normalized http://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/?chart=countri...

CyberRabbi 6y ago
What about deaths? Hospitalizations?
- elihu 6y ago
  Deaths are mostly holding steady or gradually rising at about a thousand a day in the U.S., but it usually takes a few weeks for an increase in the number of cases to be reflected in the death statistics. In general, therapeutics are better than they were at the start. Fewer infected people need ventilators and fewer of them are dying. I don't know what the details are, but apparently doctors are learning what works and what doesn't.
- lazyasciiart 6y ago
  Hospitals in Utah, Idaho and Texas are full. The numbers aren't nearly as high as they have been in previous peaks, but they're on a steep upward slope https://covidtracking.com/data/charts/us-currently-hospitalized https://covidtracking.com/data/charts/us-currently-hospitali...