From the comments: "One forgotten contribution could possibly be the large number of canceled surgeries. The last number I saw was appx 30k canceled surgeries

From the comments: "One forgotten contribution could possibly be the large number of canceled surgeries. The last number I saw was appx 30k canceled surgeries in Sweden since Mar -20. Historical data from Argentina, Israel and Denmark show significant reductions in death rates when doctors go on strike. The last strike was in the 1960's and I have been repeatedly promised (by doctors) that "..it is different now.." We have also noted a quite dramatic reduction of cancer diagnoses because of reduced screening for breast- and gyn cancer. The common wisdom among "experts" is that there is a large number of undiscovered cases which will show up later and with much more severe and deadly cancer in the months and years ahead. I doubt this. I have read a couple of the research papers defining guidelines for interpretation of pathological finds and they state explicitly that it is better to "overdiagnose" by at least a factor of 10 (and in reality up to a factor of 50) in order to not miss any "real" cases of cancer. Better to cut nine healthy breasts or prostates than to have one undiagnosed case. Well, in just a couple of years we will have clear and unambigous evidence for or against the efficency of the cancer screening programs. This is a form of full scale clinical trial happening in front of our eyes." And "Oh, todays newspaper say it is 75k less surgeries in Sweden since Mar -20."