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I live in the outer suburbs of Stockholm and (normally) commute into town by train every day. Every year around midsummer (20 June), the trains start getting no
by Pinus 6y ago
I live in the outer suburbs of Stockholm and (normally) commute into town by train every day. Every year around midsummer (20 June), the trains start getting noticeably less crowded, as people start going on their summer holidays. Then it takes until late August before the rush-hour crowds are back to normal. Is seems an extraordinary coincidence that it was during this period that Covid-19 essentially petered out in Sweden. Since the beginning of September, the number of positive tests has been climbing again, more or less exponentially. The number of deaths is lagging behind, but there is a definite uptake the last couple of weeks. As usual, deaths seem to be going down during the last week because of lagging statistics. My guess is that the final number for friday 23 october will end around 7, and 30 October around 10 (but I hope I am wrong!). At least this seems to indicate that you do not need a full-blown lockdown to stamp out Covid-19 — "Swedish summer" is a sufficiently low level of activity!
- chinathrow 6y ago> At least this seems to indicate that you do not need a full-blown lockdown to stamp out Covid-19 We can't simply "stamp out" Covid-19, not even the swedes. Not even temporarily, they never had less than 150 cases per day since summer. Source: https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6 https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.h...
- asdfasgasdgasdg 6y agoI never know what people mean when they say "can't." We can -- it's been demonstrated possible in several different countries, some of which had very significant spread of the virus before they managed to get control. I feel like "can't" isn't the right word to describe our situation. "Won't" or "choose not to" feel more appropriate.
- iso1210 6y agoNew Zealand, Thailand, Singapore, Sri Lanka, Japan, China, Malaysia, Korea, all seem to be controlling it.
- leesalminen 6y agoDo you really think China is being truthful? I don’t trust their government to be honest about anything, let alone something that makes them look bad to a global audience.
- davidw 6y agoNo, but the other countries are well worth looking at. They seem to be getting something right.
- asdfasgasdgasdg 6y agoChina is not sufficiently insular that they could hide widespread COVID infection if that were happening. It is not a situation like North Korea where very few foreigners visit and most of the local population has zero access to the public internet. If they do have any spread of COVID, they are keeping it well suppressed.
- tomohawk 6y agoThey already did. That's why it's all over the place now. They went so far as to force doctors to recant their statements that it was human-human transmissible. For example, the hero doctor Li, who eventually died of the disease. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/06/world/asia/chinese-doctor-Li-Wenliang-coronavirus.html https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/06/world/asia/chinese-doctor...
- iso1210 6y agoLi's first statemen† was 30th Dec, the WHO also found on on 30th Dec, and had set up an incident management team by Jan 1st. Before 30th Dec nobody knew this was a new disease, they were still trying to identify it. By Jan 10th the WHO was warning people of person-person transmission. Western leaders ignored the warnings.
- tomohawk 6y ago
- Pinus 6y agoOh, come on, all we need to do is to keep the entire world in "summer holiday" mode for a few years! :-)