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"Leading" is incorrect, but modeling has assumed D's need a 70-30% advantage in mail voting. This is because of polling regarding COVID where R's are less worr
by snapetom 6y ago
"Leading" is incorrect, but modeling has assumed D's need a 70-30% advantage in mail voting. This is because of polling regarding COVID where R's are less worried about early IPEV and more likely voting on election day. The current numbers are nowhere near that, so I wouldn't be surprised if Florida is red.
- newacct583 6y agoUh... whose modelling? We've never had a pandemic election, I think it's fair to say no one has any idea which demographics are more/less affected by an early voting drive. All we can say is that a whole lot of people are voting early.
- nl 6y agoMost people believe more Democrats are voting via mail (Trump had been criticizing mail voting). We do know how many registered voters from each party are voting in some circumstances. https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/23/early-voting-numbers-swing-states-431363 https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/23/early-voting-number... is a decent overview
- WaltPurvis 6y ago>Most people believe more Democrats are voting via mail It's not necessary to "believe" anything when it comes to Florida. We have the actual hard number of ballots requested and returned, broken down by party registration. More Democrats are voting via mail. They're also voting in-person in equal numbers to Republicans, at least so far.
- nl 6y ago> It's not necessary to "believe" anything when it comes to Florida. I think we are in agreement here. That's what my link shows. My understanding is that not all states collect party affiliation when sending ballots though. It's possible I'm misinformed though.