I'm not sure what you mean by "official" polls, but in 538's polling average Trump is only leading Texas by 0.5%. I also tend to like 538's model. 538's model

I'm not sure what you mean by "official" polls, but in 538's polling average Trump is only leading Texas by 0.5%. I also tend to like 538's model. 538's model gives Trump an average vote share of 2.2% more than biden (more than the polling average because the model thinks the demographics and fundamentals favor trump) but still gives Biden a 35% chance of winning. Biden winning is not very likely, but it's also not a not very small chance. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/texas/ https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/...