4 ms·

> Have you seen the early voting? Rs are LEADING in Miami-Dade, a Clinton county. Define "LEADING" please, because the actual numbers for voting in Miami-Dade

> Have you seen the early voting? Rs are LEADING in Miami-Dade, a Clinton county. Define "LEADING" please, because the actual numbers for voting in Miami-Dade county [1] as of today are: Mail Voting Rep 83,605 Dem 158,788 NPA 82,533 (NPA = No Party Affiliation) In-Person Early Voting Rep 61,273 Dem 61,548 NPA 35,296 Totals Rep 144,878 Dem 220,336 In what way does that constitute Republicans "LEADING"? [1] https://countyballotfiles.floridados.gov/VoteByMailEarlyVotingReports/PublicStats https://countyballotfiles.floridados.gov/VoteByMailEarlyVoti...

snapetom 6y ago
"Leading" is incorrect, but modeling has assumed D's need a 70-30% advantage in mail voting. This is because of polling regarding COVID where R's are less worried about early IPEV and more likely voting on election day. The current numbers are nowhere near that, so I wouldn't be surprised if Florida is red.
- newacct583 6y ago
  Uh... whose modelling? We've never had a pandemic election, I think it's fair to say no one has any idea which demographics are more/less affected by an early voting drive. All we can say is that a whole lot of people are voting early.
  - nl 6y ago
    Most people believe more Democrats are voting via mail (Trump had been criticizing mail voting). We do know how many registered voters from each party are voting in some circumstances. https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/23/early-voting-numbers-swing-states-431363 https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/23/early-voting-number... is a decent overview
    - WaltPurvis 6y ago
      >Most people believe more Democrats are voting via mail It's not necessary to "believe" anything when it comes to Florida. We have the actual hard number of ballots requested and returned, broken down by party registration. More Democrats are voting via mail. They're also voting in-person in equal numbers to Republicans, at least so far.
      - nl 6y ago
        > It's not necessary to "believe" anything when it comes to Florida. I think we are in agreement here. That's what my link shows. My understanding is that not all states collect party affiliation when sending ballots though. It's possible I'm misinformed though.
rayiner 6y ago
That’s a 20 point lead for Biden, and the data above shows that Republicans are more likely to vote in person than Democrats. (1:2 margin among mail ins, and 1:1 among early in person voting). Clinton won Miami Dade by 30 points (65-35) and still lost Florida by 1.2%.

snapetom 6y ago

"Leading" is incorrect, but modeling has assumed D's need a 70-30% advantage in mail voting. This is because of polling regarding COVID where R's are less worried about early IPEV and more likely voting on election day. The current numbers are nowhere near that, so I wouldn't be surprised if Florida is red.

newacct583 6y ago
Uh... whose modelling? We've never had a pandemic election, I think it's fair to say no one has any idea which demographics are more/less affected by an early voting drive. All we can say is that a whole lot of people are voting early.
- nl 6y ago
  Most people believe more Democrats are voting via mail (Trump had been criticizing mail voting). We do know how many registered voters from each party are voting in some circumstances. https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/23/early-voting-numbers-swing-states-431363 https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/23/early-voting-number... is a decent overview
  - WaltPurvis 6y ago
    >Most people believe more Democrats are voting via mail It's not necessary to "believe" anything when it comes to Florida. We have the actual hard number of ballots requested and returned, broken down by party registration. More Democrats are voting via mail. They're also voting in-person in equal numbers to Republicans, at least so far.
    - nl 6y ago
      > It's not necessary to "believe" anything when it comes to Florida. I think we are in agreement here. That's what my link shows. My understanding is that not all states collect party affiliation when sending ballots though. It's possible I'm misinformed though.

rayiner 6y ago

That’s a 20 point lead for Biden, and the data above shows that Republicans are more likely to vote in person than Democrats. (1:2 margin among mail ins, and 1:1 among early in person voting). Clinton won Miami Dade by 30 points (65-35) and still lost Florida by 1.2%.