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1.China has 4 times the population of America, and 1/6 the per capita output. Take your pick on what you think the long term per capita output ratio will be an
by bigpumpkin 6y ago
1.China has 4 times the population of America, and 1/6 the per capita output.
Take your pick on what you think the long term per capita output ratio will be and you'll easily reach a conclusion on the relative size of the two economies.
2.
The US has a greater inclination and ability to build alliances. However, managing the divergent interests of the members in the alliances won't be easy.
3.
China does not have enough oil to sustain itself in the case of a war. So there will be a strategic competition for the South China Sea and the control of the Strait of Malacca.
4.
Taiwan will be the key trigger for a possible war.
- perardi 6y agoThe US has a greater inclination and ability to build alliances. I really hate to bring up the T factor…but I think this is more in doubt than it used to be, given the current administration. Taiwan will be the key trigger for a possible war. I cannot imagine the horror that would ensue if China tried to assert power over Taiwan. Just the potential of losing TSMC alone…
- ardit33 6y agotrump is on the way out.... but 'trumpism' will be around for a while, but still in the minority and eventually fade just like the Tea Party, or Occupy wall Street
- fakedang 6y agoHow many TSMC foundries are in Taiwan alone? Sure, they could straight up invade Taiwan, but I'd wager that most of the affluent and the middle class (which would include a lot of TSMC engineers) will have quickly moved shop away from the island by then. So even if China took over the island, the intellect would have escaped.
- jcranmer 6y agoI believe all of the cutting-edge process node foundries are in Taiwan. If all of those foundries were to be lost, that would be something like 50% of the entire production capacity for computers, computer peripherals, and smartphones completely axed, and it would take years for the capacity to resume.
- echelon 6y agoCould the US offer statehood (or less drastic protections) to Taiwan? It would allow the US to have joint ownership claim over the South China Sea and enforce that for its allies - Japan, Korea, Vietnam, et al. It would also allow missile defense systems to be installed. China would fiercely oppose it. But what could they realistically do other than start an invasion, which would be vehemently opposed by the world and be an end to their rise? Offer Taiwan statehood.