I think I visited Wisconsin once on a day trip when I had some family in neighboring Illinois back in the 90's. I definitely don't know a ton about the state.

I think I visited Wisconsin once on a day trip when I had some family in neighboring Illinois back in the 90's. I definitely don't know a ton about the state. Again, I certainly don't know which way Wisconsin will end up voting. But I guess my point here is that it seems like the NYT feature was based on an honest analysis of data from something called IPUMS, which Wikipedia tells me is "the world's largest individual-level population database", not a just "schmuck reporter" with a baseless hunch or something. It'll be interesting to revisit pieces like this on November 3 (or whenever all the votes are tallied) to see if any of them turned out to be good predictors or not.