What model is factoring for my states electoral college voting record that clearly states trump is going to win even though the they predict it will be biden? 2

What model is factoring for my states electoral college voting record that clearly states trump is going to win even though the they predict it will be biden? 2018 only had a minimal increase in democrats elected (still not even a competitive minority) and the governor was a democrat (whom many people are meh on or despise). The only reason a democrat won was because there was no electoral college and Scott Walker was universally disliked after he destroyed unions. Eventually he hurt enough republican constituents that he shot himself in both feet.