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TX and FL going blue? Have you seen the early voting? Rs are LEADING in Miami-Dade, a Clinton county. Voter registrations are crazy for GOP in FL and the D-R vo

TX and FL going blue? Have you seen the early voting? Rs are LEADING in Miami-Dade, a Clinton county. Voter registrations are crazy for GOP in FL and the D-R voter gap is only at around 130,000 (used to be 650,000 when Bush won FL in 2000) Other than polls, I have yet to see any indication that FL will go blue despite going red in 2016 and then electing an R Governor on 2018.

anthonyrstevens 6y ago
The numbers disagree with your assertions. https://data.tallahassee.com/early-voting-turnout/florida/ https://data.tallahassee.com/early-voting-turnout/florida/ About 500,000 more D than R voters have voted early. This is a MUCH bigger gap than we saw in 2016.
- AstroJetson 6y ago
  Thanks very much for posting this link. I'm interested in how other states are doing. It's nice that all of the states that publish data is aggregated here.
srtjstjsj 6y ago
Be careful. Those counts are for registered party, not vote. R membership has been slipping in the last few years and an exceptionally high number of prominent Rs have endorsed the D candidate. This year, those ballots are likely to break more toward D votes than the party registration suggests.
- jki275 6y ago
  The people you're calling "prominent" are essentially pariahs in the Republican party. Literally almost no Republican cares what they have to say.
  - dane-pgp 6y ago
    Also, none of them are True Scotsmen.
CyanLite2 6y ago
TX has a better chance of going blue than FL. Beto O'Rourke has registered 1.8 million new voters in the past 4 years in the state of Texas, 300k of those were registered in the past 2 weeks. Beto lost Texas by 200k votes. And so far, TX has been killing it in terms of early-voting. About 75%(!!) turnout so far than what they had in 2016. And we still have 11 days left to go before E-day. Biggest turnout percentage in the entire country so far.
- deleted 6y ago
  [deleted]
- nl 6y ago
  Most modelling puts Florida as about 52/48 Biden's way but Texas 60/40 Trump's way. It would be a mild surprise if Biden won Texas. It would be astonishing is Biden won Texas without also winning Florida.
  - runawaybottle 6y ago
    One of the best democratic candidates ever, Barack Obama, couldn’t win Texas. He won Florida twice. Biden doesn’t have Obama’s charisma, so he basically has to bet on Trump frustration to carry Florida. This election is a total question of Trump exhaustion. If people are exhausted from him then we’ll see the toss ups turn blue. If people are more frustrated with lockdowns, riots, protests, race coming to the surface in America (a lot of people don’t like that it’s being exposed and talked about), immigration, then toss ups go red. I don’t think the pollsters probing for ‘Did Trump handle coronavirus well’ is the right thing to ask, mainly because I don’t think likely right-wing voters fault him. The same way they didn’t fault him for any of his access-Hollywood tapes, etc. They are more likely to fault social welfare, crime, wealth redistribution, immigration, globalization - the same way they did in 2016. If they aren’t overwhelmed by Trump’s aggressiveness, then why would anything have changed in 2020? Just because the age 15-30 crowd on Reddit and the media lean one way doesn’t mean things actually changed in peoples minds.
    - nl 6y ago
WaltPurvis 6y ago
> Have you seen the early voting? Rs are LEADING in Miami-Dade, a Clinton county. Define "LEADING" please, because the actual numbers for voting in Miami-Dade county [1] as of today are: Mail Voting Rep 83,605 Dem 158,788 NPA 82,533 (NPA = No Party Affiliation) In-Person Early Voting Rep 61,273 Dem 61,548 NPA 35,296 Totals Rep 144,878 Dem 220,336 In what way does that constitute Republicans "LEADING"? [1] https://countyballotfiles.floridados.gov/VoteByMailEarlyVotingReports/PublicStats https://countyballotfiles.floridados.gov/VoteByMailEarlyVoti...
- snapetom 6y ago
  "Leading" is incorrect, but modeling has assumed D's need a 70-30% advantage in mail voting. This is because of polling regarding COVID where R's are less worried about early IPEV and more likely voting on election day. The current numbers are nowhere near that, so I wouldn't be surprised if Florida is red.
  - newacct583 6y ago
    Uh... whose modelling? We've never had a pandemic election, I think it's fair to say no one has any idea which demographics are more/less affected by an early voting drive. All we can say is that a whole lot of people are voting early.
    - nl 6y ago
      Most people believe more Democrats are voting via mail (Trump had been criticizing mail voting). We do know how many registered voters from each party are voting in some circumstances. https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/23/early-voting-numbers-swing-states-431363 https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/23/early-voting-number... is a decent overview
      - WaltPurvis 6y ago
        >Most people believe more Democrats are voting via mail It's not necessary to "believe" anything when it comes to Florida. We have the actual hard number of ballots requested and returned, broken down by party registration. More Democrats are voting via mail. They're also voting in-person in equal numbers to Republicans, at least so far.

anthonyrstevens 6y ago

The numbers disagree with your assertions. https://data.tallahassee.com/early-voting-turnout/florida/ https://data.tallahassee.com/early-voting-turnout/florida/ About 500,000 more D than R voters have voted early. This is a MUCH bigger gap than we saw in 2016.

AstroJetson 6y ago
Thanks very much for posting this link. I'm interested in how other states are doing. It's nice that all of the states that publish data is aggregated here.

srtjstjsj 6y ago

Be careful. Those counts are for registered party, not vote. R membership has been slipping in the last few years and an exceptionally high number of prominent Rs have endorsed the D candidate. This year, those ballots are likely to break more toward D votes than the party registration suggests.

jki275 6y ago
The people you're calling "prominent" are essentially pariahs in the Republican party. Literally almost no Republican cares what they have to say.
- dane-pgp 6y ago
  Also, none of them are True Scotsmen.

CyanLite2 6y ago

TX has a better chance of going blue than FL. Beto O'Rourke has registered 1.8 million new voters in the past 4 years in the state of Texas, 300k of those were registered in the past 2 weeks. Beto lost Texas by 200k votes. And so far, TX has been killing it in terms of early-voting. About 75%(!!) turnout so far than what they had in 2016. And we still have 11 days left to go before E-day. Biggest turnout percentage in the entire country so far.

deleted 6y ago
[deleted]
nl 6y ago
Most modelling puts Florida as about 52/48 Biden's way but Texas 60/40 Trump's way. It would be a mild surprise if Biden won Texas. It would be astonishing is Biden won Texas without also winning Florida.
- runawaybottle 6y ago
  One of the best democratic candidates ever, Barack Obama, couldn’t win Texas. He won Florida twice. Biden doesn’t have Obama’s charisma, so he basically has to bet on Trump frustration to carry Florida. This election is a total question of Trump exhaustion. If people are exhausted from him then we’ll see the toss ups turn blue. If people are more frustrated with lockdowns, riots, protests, race coming to the surface in America (a lot of people don’t like that it’s being exposed and talked about), immigration, then toss ups go red. I don’t think the pollsters probing for ‘Did Trump handle coronavirus well’ is the right thing to ask, mainly because I don’t think likely right-wing voters fault him. The same way they didn’t fault him for any of his access-Hollywood tapes, etc. They are more likely to fault social welfare, crime, wealth redistribution, immigration, globalization - the same way they did in 2016. If they aren’t overwhelmed by Trump’s aggressiveness, then why would anything have changed in 2020? Just because the age 15-30 crowd on Reddit and the media lean one way doesn’t mean things actually changed in peoples minds.
  - nl 6y ago

WaltPurvis 6y ago

> Have you seen the early voting? Rs are LEADING in Miami-Dade, a Clinton county. Define "LEADING" please, because the actual numbers for voting in Miami-Dade county [1] as of today are: Mail Voting Rep 83,605 Dem 158,788 NPA 82,533 (NPA = No Party Affiliation) In-Person Early Voting Rep 61,273 Dem 61,548 NPA 35,296 Totals Rep 144,878 Dem 220,336 In what way does that constitute Republicans "LEADING"? [1] https://countyballotfiles.floridados.gov/VoteByMailEarlyVotingReports/PublicStats https://countyballotfiles.floridados.gov/VoteByMailEarlyVoti...

snapetom 6y ago
"Leading" is incorrect, but modeling has assumed D's need a 70-30% advantage in mail voting. This is because of polling regarding COVID where R's are less worried about early IPEV and more likely voting on election day. The current numbers are nowhere near that, so I wouldn't be surprised if Florida is red.
- newacct583 6y ago
  Uh... whose modelling? We've never had a pandemic election, I think it's fair to say no one has any idea which demographics are more/less affected by an early voting drive. All we can say is that a whole lot of people are voting early.
  - nl 6y ago
    Most people believe more Democrats are voting via mail (Trump had been criticizing mail voting). We do know how many registered voters from each party are voting in some circumstances. https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/23/early-voting-numbers-swing-states-431363 https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/23/early-voting-number... is a decent overview
    - WaltPurvis 6y ago
      >Most people believe more Democrats are voting via mail It's not necessary to "believe" anything when it comes to Florida. We have the actual hard number of ballots requested and returned, broken down by party registration. More Democrats are voting via mail. They're also voting in-person in equal numbers to Republicans, at least so far.