5 ms·
> You would have bet the farm on the undervalued bet on the prediction markets. This is what's frustrating about sites like 538. They have Biden as an 87% cha
by foxhound6 6y ago
> You would have bet the farm on the undervalued bet on the prediction markets.
This is what's frustrating about sites like 538. They have Biden as an 87% chance to win. A betting site I frequent has Biden's winning odds as -180 (1.556 for Europeans). If they really believe the accuracy of their models, they should literally be betting the farm on a Biden win.
- rsynnott 6y ago> If they really believe the accuracy of their models, they should literally be betting the farm on a Biden win. I mean, maybe they are; how would you know? (Though it would seem vaguely improper; not sure about the journalistic ethics take on this but it's at the very least not a great look.) Presumably the money a few 538 employees could bet wouldn't shift the betting markets very much.
- srtjstjsj 6y agoThat's not how gambling works. You don't "bet the farm" on a single 87% chance event to win 1.5 farms.
- gifnamething 6y agoThat is how betting works when you hedge.
- anonymoushn 6y agoHow are you planning to hedge this?
- gifnamething 6y agoUh, bet on the other guy
- anonymoushn 6y agoAt most (all?) venues, betting on both guys is worse than not betting on either guy. So this sounds like a bad plan.
- anonymoushn 6y agoThe Kelly criterion says you bet 61% of the farm in this situation.