7 ms·

That's going to be a fun toy on election night, as state results come in.

dragontamer 6y ago
> election night, as state results come in. Not this year. With mail-in ballots, the ballots won't necessarily be finalized until a week or more after the election. Its necessary due to COVID19. But it will be until multiple days after the election before we know the true winner. A large number of states will certainly be called on election night (because many states, such as California, are far from competitive). But the battleground states may take some time.
- bryanlarsen 6y ago
  Not necessarily. There are several paths where a Biden win could be called early on election night. For example, Texas has a large fraction of early voting and a small fraction of mail ballots. So the chance that Texas can be called early is quite high. And if Texas gets called for Biden, then the networks will call the entire country for Biden.
  - dragontamer 6y ago
    You're right that if Texas goes blue, I think its safe to say that Biden won the election. But I also think that Texas going for Biden is very small: Trump is still leading by 2% or so by official polls. Its important to push Texas a little bit since there's a chance for victory. In the most likely event: Texas goes red (as it has gone for the past several decades), and we're left wondering about Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania as usual. If Florida has an insurmountable lead on election night (like 5% or something), then Biden probably wins. But if its a 2% differential (too close to call by the media, and a serious counting effort starts to take place), like is currently projected in the polls, then Florida could very well drag out this election for a week or longer. Just like back in 2000.
    - nick_gur 6y ago
      TX and FL going blue? Have you seen the early voting? Rs are LEADING in Miami-Dade, a Clinton county. Voter registrations are crazy for GOP in FL and the D-R voter gap is only at around 130,000 (used to be 650,000 when Bush won FL in 2000) Other than polls, I have yet to see any indication that FL will go blue despite going red in 2016 and then electing an R Governor on 2018.
      - anthonyrstevens 6y ago
        The numbers disagree with your assertions. https://data.tallahassee.com/early-voting-turnout/florida/ https://data.tallahassee.com/early-voting-turnout/florida/ About 500,000 more D than R voters have voted early. This is a MUCH bigger gap than we saw in 2016.
        AstroJetson 6y ago
        Thanks very much for posting this link. I'm interested in how other states are doing. It's nice that all of the states that publish data is aggregated here.
      - srtjstjsj 6y ago
        Be careful. Those counts are for registered party, not vote. R membership has been slipping in the last few years and an exceptionally high number of prominent Rs have endorsed the D candidate. This year, those ballots are likely to break more toward D votes than the party registration suggests.
        jki275 6y ago
        The people you're calling "prominent" are essentially pariahs in the Republican party. Literally almost no Republican cares what they have to say.
        dane-pgp 6y ago
        Also, none of them are True Scotsmen.
  - hyperion2010 6y ago
    For context, if Texas goes for Biden, then the 538 model predicts some amusing things. 1. The next most likely state that Biden could win is South Carolina at 25%. 2. The next most likely state that Trump could win is Ohio at 28%. 3. Biden would have the same chance of winning Mississippi as Trump would have of winning Iowa, 21%. Calibrate your expectations accordingly.
  - jki275 6y ago
    Biden will not win Texas. If Biden were to win Texas, the GOP would be finished forever. Polls notwithstanding, Biden has as much chance of winning Texas as Trump has of winning California.
    - pedrosorio 6y ago
      “Polls notwithstanding” what data do you use to justify your statement regarding the outcome of the election in Texas and California? Because if you look at the polls that’s ridiculous (probability of Biden winning Texas is orders of magnitude larger than Trump winning California).
      - jki275 6y ago
        I didn't say "probability". It's not going to happen. The polls are bullshit.
        pedrosorio 6y ago
        You said “Biden has as much chance of winning Texas as Trump has of winning California.” What do you mean when you say “chance”, if not probability?
        jki275 6y ago
        I mean neither event will happen.
    - rayiner 6y ago
      “Finished forever” isn’t really a thing. The parties realign. Texas was a Democratic stronghold until the 1990s. Beto ran close in a 2018 election against a Republican candidate supporting a historically unpopular Republican President, during the blue wave. But Greg Abbott won his election for Texas Governor that same year by a bigger margin than George W. Bush did in 1994. He won 42% of the Hispanic vote (Texas became majority-minority in 2011).
  - nl 6y ago
    It's more likely that Biden wins Florida and had enough margin in PA for it to be callable than Texas gets counted enough and is competitive for Biden. It would be astonishing statistically if Biden doesn't have a good margin in PA or FL but is competitive in TX.
- jedberg 6y ago
  Florida counts quickly. Their absentees have to arrive before the polls close to count, and are counted right away with the day of votes. If Biden has a decisive victory in Florida, it would be very reasonable to call the election the next morning (which would still be late night in the West).
- dillondoyle 6y ago
  If we smash Florida and have enough data in Penn it will be called quick. Despite Florida being one of the worst most disgusting states in terms of suppressing the vote - DeSantis allowed county supervisors to start counting mail ballots basically immediately. Over 3.3 million have already returned ballots and 1.3 have already voted in person. Pennsylvania on the other hand... I don't think they can count ballots until after polls close. But maybe we get lucky and there are enough in person votes, the margin is big, and polling shows no drastic changes in VBM then it will get called. Even without Pennsylvania if Trump loses Florida and then loses the midwest, doesn't flip Nevada etc it will be called quick. Basically I'm looking at Florida asap and very very worried about it... I would have bet Trump was ahead 8 weeks ago. Now I think maybe Biden by a point or two max.
  - dillondoyle 6y ago
    Curious about why so many downvotes - ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
- elicash 6y ago
  All but 8 states can start processing ballots before election day. Unfortunately, 3 of those 8 are MI, WI, PA. So it may take longer for those. Florida will likely be an early sign, since those mail ballots get processed and counted early. IF (and this is a big if) Biden carries Florida on election night, then it's actually possible we know who wins that night.
  - 67868018 6y ago
    Madison Wisconsin pre-sorts mail in ballots by voting ward and has them taken to the polling places on Election Day morning and feeds them through the tabulator after someone cosplays as the voter to ensure the voter can't cast two ballots. I assume the same process is done for all the major metro areas. They'll be counted on time. (They verify a few absentee ballot envelopes for required signatures etc and then open up the envelopes, someone verifies the ballot is complete, and then mix the ballots together so the ballot is kept anonymous. Chain of custody here is clever and works well. It would still be possible to notify the voter their ballot was rejected.)
    - Balgair 6y ago
      > after someone cosplays as the voter to ensure the voter can't cast two ballots. I'm sorry, what? This needs more explanation.
      - 67868018 6y ago
        They don't just stuff it through the machine, you get in line as is you were the voter, verify you're on the rolls for your polling place, check you off in the book, etc. No steps are skipped to ensure the voter can't show up and request another ballot and vote again. This is as described by a friend who had worked elections for years, this year will be my first. Should be interesting to see it in person.
  - timdierks 6y ago
    At least in NY, I don't see how this is possible because I can send in an absentee ballot and then invalidate it by voting on election day in-person. So I don't see how they can open any of the secrecy envelopes, let alone count any ballots, until they've determined if the ballot in the envelope should be counted, and they can't do that until they get the poll book back from my election site at the end of in-person voting. (But maybe NY is one of these 8 states due to this rule?)
- ianai 6y ago
  Apparently Florida should be ready for pandemic adjustments to polling and still report nearly all of their results on election night. They’ve switched to mostly mail in ballots years ago and I think even count them as they come in or something - so they can be reported election night. Granted, it’s Florida. So sanity need not apply and we could get their election results from the SCOTUS. Personally, I hope the early, in person voting decides the election on election night.
m0zg 6y ago
We've seen this show before though. It'll start with "Biden has 97% chance of winning" and end with Rachel Maddow and Chunk Yogurt crying on live TV. In fact, they could probably re-use this video to save money, and nobody would notice: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G87UXIH8Lzo https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G87UXIH8Lzo

> election night, as state results come in. Not this year. With mail-in ballots, the ballots won't necessarily be finalized until a week or more after the election. Its necessary due to COVID19. But it will be until multiple days after the election before we know the true winner. A large number of states will certainly be called on election night (because many states, such as California, are far from competitive). But the battleground states may take some time.

bryanlarsen 6y ago
Not necessarily. There are several paths where a Biden win could be called early on election night. For example, Texas has a large fraction of early voting and a small fraction of mail ballots. So the chance that Texas can be called early is quite high. And if Texas gets called for Biden, then the networks will call the entire country for Biden.
- dragontamer 6y ago
  You're right that if Texas goes blue, I think its safe to say that Biden won the election. But I also think that Texas going for Biden is very small: Trump is still leading by 2% or so by official polls. Its important to push Texas a little bit since there's a chance for victory. In the most likely event: Texas goes red (as it has gone for the past several decades), and we're left wondering about Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania as usual. If Florida has an insurmountable lead on election night (like 5% or something), then Biden probably wins. But if its a 2% differential (too close to call by the media, and a serious counting effort starts to take place), like is currently projected in the polls, then Florida could very well drag out this election for a week or longer. Just like back in 2000.
  - nick_gur 6y ago
    TX and FL going blue? Have you seen the early voting? Rs are LEADING in Miami-Dade, a Clinton county. Voter registrations are crazy for GOP in FL and the D-R voter gap is only at around 130,000 (used to be 650,000 when Bush won FL in 2000) Other than polls, I have yet to see any indication that FL will go blue despite going red in 2016 and then electing an R Governor on 2018.
    - anthonyrstevens 6y ago
      The numbers disagree with your assertions. https://data.tallahassee.com/early-voting-turnout/florida/ https://data.tallahassee.com/early-voting-turnout/florida/ About 500,000 more D than R voters have voted early. This is a MUCH bigger gap than we saw in 2016.
      - AstroJetson 6y ago
        Thanks very much for posting this link. I'm interested in how other states are doing. It's nice that all of the states that publish data is aggregated here.
    - srtjstjsj 6y ago
      Be careful. Those counts are for registered party, not vote. R membership has been slipping in the last few years and an exceptionally high number of prominent Rs have endorsed the D candidate. This year, those ballots are likely to break more toward D votes than the party registration suggests.
      - jki275 6y ago
        The people you're calling "prominent" are essentially pariahs in the Republican party. Literally almost no Republican cares what they have to say.
        dane-pgp 6y ago
        Also, none of them are True Scotsmen.
- hyperion2010 6y ago
  For context, if Texas goes for Biden, then the 538 model predicts some amusing things. 1. The next most likely state that Biden could win is South Carolina at 25%. 2. The next most likely state that Trump could win is Ohio at 28%. 3. Biden would have the same chance of winning Mississippi as Trump would have of winning Iowa, 21%. Calibrate your expectations accordingly.
- jki275 6y ago
  Biden will not win Texas. If Biden were to win Texas, the GOP would be finished forever. Polls notwithstanding, Biden has as much chance of winning Texas as Trump has of winning California.
  - pedrosorio 6y ago
    “Polls notwithstanding” what data do you use to justify your statement regarding the outcome of the election in Texas and California? Because if you look at the polls that’s ridiculous (probability of Biden winning Texas is orders of magnitude larger than Trump winning California).
    - jki275 6y ago
      I didn't say "probability". It's not going to happen. The polls are bullshit.
      - pedrosorio 6y ago
        You said “Biden has as much chance of winning Texas as Trump has of winning California.” What do you mean when you say “chance”, if not probability?
        jki275 6y ago
        I mean neither event will happen.
  - rayiner 6y ago
    “Finished forever” isn’t really a thing. The parties realign. Texas was a Democratic stronghold until the 1990s. Beto ran close in a 2018 election against a Republican candidate supporting a historically unpopular Republican President, during the blue wave. But Greg Abbott won his election for Texas Governor that same year by a bigger margin than George W. Bush did in 1994. He won 42% of the Hispanic vote (Texas became majority-minority in 2011).
- nl 6y ago
  It's more likely that Biden wins Florida and had enough margin in PA for it to be callable than Texas gets counted enough and is competitive for Biden. It would be astonishing statistically if Biden doesn't have a good margin in PA or FL but is competitive in TX.
jedberg 6y ago
Florida counts quickly. Their absentees have to arrive before the polls close to count, and are counted right away with the day of votes. If Biden has a decisive victory in Florida, it would be very reasonable to call the election the next morning (which would still be late night in the West).
dillondoyle 6y ago
If we smash Florida and have enough data in Penn it will be called quick. Despite Florida being one of the worst most disgusting states in terms of suppressing the vote - DeSantis allowed county supervisors to start counting mail ballots basically immediately. Over 3.3 million have already returned ballots and 1.3 have already voted in person. Pennsylvania on the other hand... I don't think they can count ballots until after polls close. But maybe we get lucky and there are enough in person votes, the margin is big, and polling shows no drastic changes in VBM then it will get called. Even without Pennsylvania if Trump loses Florida and then loses the midwest, doesn't flip Nevada etc it will be called quick. Basically I'm looking at Florida asap and very very worried about it... I would have bet Trump was ahead 8 weeks ago. Now I think maybe Biden by a point or two max.
- dillondoyle 6y ago
  Curious about why so many downvotes - ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
elicash 6y ago
All but 8 states can start processing ballots before election day. Unfortunately, 3 of those 8 are MI, WI, PA. So it may take longer for those. Florida will likely be an early sign, since those mail ballots get processed and counted early. IF (and this is a big if) Biden carries Florida on election night, then it's actually possible we know who wins that night.
- 67868018 6y ago
  Madison Wisconsin pre-sorts mail in ballots by voting ward and has them taken to the polling places on Election Day morning and feeds them through the tabulator after someone cosplays as the voter to ensure the voter can't cast two ballots. I assume the same process is done for all the major metro areas. They'll be counted on time. (They verify a few absentee ballot envelopes for required signatures etc and then open up the envelopes, someone verifies the ballot is complete, and then mix the ballots together so the ballot is kept anonymous. Chain of custody here is clever and works well. It would still be possible to notify the voter their ballot was rejected.)
  - Balgair 6y ago
    > after someone cosplays as the voter to ensure the voter can't cast two ballots. I'm sorry, what? This needs more explanation.
    - 67868018 6y ago
      They don't just stuff it through the machine, you get in line as is you were the voter, verify you're on the rolls for your polling place, check you off in the book, etc. No steps are skipped to ensure the voter can't show up and request another ballot and vote again. This is as described by a friend who had worked elections for years, this year will be my first. Should be interesting to see it in person.
- timdierks 6y ago
  At least in NY, I don't see how this is possible because I can send in an absentee ballot and then invalidate it by voting on election day in-person. So I don't see how they can open any of the secrecy envelopes, let alone count any ballots, until they've determined if the ballot in the envelope should be counted, and they can't do that until they get the poll book back from my election site at the end of in-person voting. (But maybe NY is one of these 8 states due to this rule?)
ianai 6y ago
Apparently Florida should be ready for pandemic adjustments to polling and still report nearly all of their results on election night. They’ve switched to mostly mail in ballots years ago and I think even count them as they come in or something - so they can be reported election night. Granted, it’s Florida. So sanity need not apply and we could get their election results from the SCOTUS. Personally, I hope the early, in person voting decides the election on election night.

m0zg 6y ago

We've seen this show before though. It'll start with "Biden has 97% chance of winning" and end with Rachel Maddow and Chunk Yogurt crying on live TV. In fact, they could probably re-use this video to save money, and nobody would notice: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G87UXIH8Lzo https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G87UXIH8Lzo