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> It does not address the possibility that there are systematic methodological shortcomings in the polls. I think 538 does take this into account in terms of
by kenjackson 6y ago
> It does not address the possibility that there are systematic methodological shortcomings in the polls.
I think 538 does take this into account in terms of the uncertainty, which plays into their probabilities. I know they certainly talk about this.
- rhino369 6y agoThey definitely try to. Whether they accurately model the risk is anyone's guess.