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You're right. They had him on about 33%, depending on exactly when you look. Interestingly, in 2016 they thought Trump was more likely than the betting markets
by OscarCunningham 6y ago
You're right. They had him on about 33%, depending on exactly when you look.
Interestingly, in 2016 they thought Trump was more likely than the betting markets did. Betfair had him on about 22%. So if they were betting they'd have made a profit.
This year the situation has reversed. Betfair has 35% for Trump, whereas 538 has him on only 12%. So they'd be betting on Biden.
- lastofthemojito 6y agoYou know what they say, armies go to battle equipped for the last war that they fought. We all take our lessons learned, and recent ones seem to dominate. So yeah, a lot of people seem convinced that since the pre-election polling showed Trump at a disadvantage last time, we'll see an identical surprise victory this time. I personally think that makes as much sense as leaving your umbrella at home on a day with a 75% chance of rain because the last time there was a similar forecast, no rain fell.