2 ms·

I thought 538 gave Trump a 25% chance to win in 2016? Sure, he wasn't the favorite, but that's like the probability of a typical batter getting a hit in baseba

I thought 538 gave Trump a 25% chance to win in 2016? Sure, he wasn't the favorite, but that's like the probability of a typical batter getting a hit in baseball. It isn't what happens in most at-bats, but it shouldn't be a big surprise either.

pwinnski 6y ago
Correct. On Election Day 2016, they had him at 28.6%. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/ https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/