4 ms·

That's because people have caricatures of each other which are wildly inaccurate. If you talked to people you would understand that what they optimize for is n

That's because people have caricatures of each other which are wildly inaccurate. If you talked to people you would understand that what they optimize for is not really related to the caricatures of them, its not the opposite of what "your side" cares about just completely different. When it is obvious that all the news comes from New York City and Los Angeles, and the world resyndicates that, while a large swath of America that actually matters cares about different things, it is easy to tell why the models fail. You would have bet the farm on the undervalued bet on the prediction markets.

foxhound6 6y ago
> You would have bet the farm on the undervalued bet on the prediction markets. This is what's frustrating about sites like 538. They have Biden as an 87% chance to win. A betting site I frequent has Biden's winning odds as -180 (1.556 for Europeans). If they really believe the accuracy of their models, they should literally be betting the farm on a Biden win.
- rsynnott 6y ago
  > If they really believe the accuracy of their models, they should literally be betting the farm on a Biden win. I mean, maybe they are; how would you know? (Though it would seem vaguely improper; not sure about the journalistic ethics take on this but it's at the very least not a great look.) Presumably the money a few 538 employees could bet wouldn't shift the betting markets very much.
- srtjstjsj 6y ago
  That's not how gambling works. You don't "bet the farm" on a single 87% chance event to win 1.5 farms.
  - gifnamething 6y ago
    That is how betting works when you hedge.
    - anonymoushn 6y ago
      How are you planning to hedge this?
      - gifnamething 6y ago
        Uh, bet on the other guy
        anonymoushn 6y ago
        At most (all?) venues, betting on both guys is worse than not betting on either guy. So this sounds like a bad plan.
  - anonymoushn 6y ago
    The Kelly criterion says you bet 61% of the farm in this situation.

foxhound6 6y ago

> You would have bet the farm on the undervalued bet on the prediction markets. This is what's frustrating about sites like 538. They have Biden as an 87% chance to win. A betting site I frequent has Biden's winning odds as -180 (1.556 for Europeans). If they really believe the accuracy of their models, they should literally be betting the farm on a Biden win.

rsynnott 6y ago
> If they really believe the accuracy of their models, they should literally be betting the farm on a Biden win. I mean, maybe they are; how would you know? (Though it would seem vaguely improper; not sure about the journalistic ethics take on this but it's at the very least not a great look.) Presumably the money a few 538 employees could bet wouldn't shift the betting markets very much.
srtjstjsj 6y ago
That's not how gambling works. You don't "bet the farm" on a single 87% chance event to win 1.5 farms.
- gifnamething 6y ago
  That is how betting works when you hedge.
  - anonymoushn 6y ago
    How are you planning to hedge this?
    - gifnamething 6y ago
      Uh, bet on the other guy
      - anonymoushn 6y ago
        At most (all?) venues, betting on both guys is worse than not betting on either guy. So this sounds like a bad plan.
- anonymoushn 6y ago
  The Kelly criterion says you bet 61% of the farm in this situation.