I actually made a "bad bet" with a friend about Instagram. Specifically, I bet him a steak dinner that Instagram would not have more users 12 months from now th

I actually made a "bad bet" with a friend about Instagram. Specifically, I bet him a steak dinner that Instagram would not have more users 12 months from now than it did today, this was right around the iPhone 4 times when Instagram was like, 100K users. I believed at the time that filters was a flash in the pan gimmick that was making Instagram the fad of the day but they didn't have any deep engagement loops that would drive long term return usage after people got sick of seeing someone else's sunset with moire on it for the 200th time. I wasn't exactly alone at the time about this either.