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well we lost most of our contractors when the pandemic hit but the new move has been to outsource and starting with support groups. since they own their buildin

well we lost most of our contractors when the pandemic hit but the new move has been to outsource and starting with support groups. since they own their buildings it may not be as simple to dispense with the added space but this does not mean they cannot simply shut down entire floors to save money. The fallout people keep missing is the loss of tax revenue. Either the direct property tax as values drop to in some cases income taxes shifting to other locales. Throw in the reduction in spending at local associated businesses like restaurants and stores which also results in lower sales tax revenue and eventually staffing. It is quite the cascade effect that will happen.

jacquesm 6y ago
Yes, this knock-on or 'domino' effect is severely underestimated.
- ghaff 6y ago
  A lot of modern urbanites are probably too young to remember just how bad a lot of American cities were in the 70s/80s. A city like Boston was still losing population well into the 90s. It wasn't just Detroit. It would be very easy for the relatively recent urbanization trend to reverse for another generation or more.
vosper 6y ago
> The fallout people keep missing is the loss of tax revenue. Either the direct property tax as values drop to in some cases income taxes shifting to other locales. Throw in the reduction in spending at local associated businesses like restaurants and stores which also results in lower sales tax revenue and eventually staffing. It is quite the cascade effect that will happen. I think we might see the opposite in some subset of small towns - probably the ones in and around areas of natural beauty, or hot-spots for hobbies like rock climbing or skiing. I'm guessing some places are small enough that it wouldn't take a huge number of well-paid remote elite moving in/nearby to boost local government coffers, and possibly make some businesses viable that weren't before.
- ManBlanket 6y ago
  Good point. A downturn in the urban center could very well mean a boon for other neighborhoods. I'm imagining a place like Arcata, Ca would become more desirable than living in the Bay Area for a professional, so they move. Sure, it means the coffee shop across the street from their old downtown office closes, and someone in their early 20's cant find work in SF. But then that young person moves back to Arcata. They bring their indie band and contribute to the local culture. Having graduated few years later that young person runs into that same professional from across the street, they get around to talking and find a shoe in the door at that same formerly impenetrable wall of glass on the Bay's skyline. The downfall of the urban center isn't necessarily a bad thing if it means the economic and cultural boons of city life are spread to other wanting communities.
WWLink 6y ago
A lot of commercial properties are not owned by the companies residing in them, but property holdings firms that have owned them for decades. And/or business people who bought in the right place at the right time lol. The property tax laws in California that benefit long time homeowners also benefit long time commercial property owners. In California, if proposition 15 passes AND a ton of companies stop leasing space, a lot of those firms will probably have their arm twisted enough to sell the properties. That will lead to a lot more property tax revenue. That, or the commercial properties get torn down and replaced with residential properties. Or none of the above and California becomes like Detroit, as some people in another thread predicted, lmao.

jacquesm 6y ago

Yes, this knock-on or 'domino' effect is severely underestimated.

ghaff 6y ago
A lot of modern urbanites are probably too young to remember just how bad a lot of American cities were in the 70s/80s. A city like Boston was still losing population well into the 90s. It wasn't just Detroit. It would be very easy for the relatively recent urbanization trend to reverse for another generation or more.

vosper 6y ago

> The fallout people keep missing is the loss of tax revenue. Either the direct property tax as values drop to in some cases income taxes shifting to other locales. Throw in the reduction in spending at local associated businesses like restaurants and stores which also results in lower sales tax revenue and eventually staffing. It is quite the cascade effect that will happen. I think we might see the opposite in some subset of small towns - probably the ones in and around areas of natural beauty, or hot-spots for hobbies like rock climbing or skiing. I'm guessing some places are small enough that it wouldn't take a huge number of well-paid remote elite moving in/nearby to boost local government coffers, and possibly make some businesses viable that weren't before.

ManBlanket 6y ago
Good point. A downturn in the urban center could very well mean a boon for other neighborhoods. I'm imagining a place like Arcata, Ca would become more desirable than living in the Bay Area for a professional, so they move. Sure, it means the coffee shop across the street from their old downtown office closes, and someone in their early 20's cant find work in SF. But then that young person moves back to Arcata. They bring their indie band and contribute to the local culture. Having graduated few years later that young person runs into that same professional from across the street, they get around to talking and find a shoe in the door at that same formerly impenetrable wall of glass on the Bay's skyline. The downfall of the urban center isn't necessarily a bad thing if it means the economic and cultural boons of city life are spread to other wanting communities.

WWLink 6y ago

A lot of commercial properties are not owned by the companies residing in them, but property holdings firms that have owned them for decades. And/or business people who bought in the right place at the right time lol. The property tax laws in California that benefit long time homeowners also benefit long time commercial property owners. In California, if proposition 15 passes AND a ton of companies stop leasing space, a lot of those firms will probably have their arm twisted enough to sell the properties. That will lead to a lot more property tax revenue. That, or the commercial properties get torn down and replaced with residential properties. Or none of the above and California becomes like Detroit, as some people in another thread predicted, lmao.