3 ms·

Statistical analysis does not require running experiments but it does require an unbiased approach.

triceratops 6y ago
Every airline has mask policies in place so natural experiments comparing masked and unmasked flights as the control group are impossible. Deliberately running unmasked flights as a control group is ethically fraught. A statistically rigorous analysis can't be done in this case. This is the best we can get. Requiring masks on flights has very little downside or cost, and potentially big upside.
- tinus_hn 6y ago
  That’s fine but then you can’t present it as a scientific argument. Choosing a few anecdotes and talking about it as if it is science is dishonest. Face masks are a perfect ‘red herring solution’: - They are very visible so you can see who’s using them - They are slightly inconvenient so it makes users feel they’ve done their part - However slightly, they infringe on the basic right to breathe so people have a reason to rebel against them This causes conflict and gives the users a reason to feel superior - They come with a plausible though difficult to prove or disprove story But don’t forget there just is not a whole lot of convincing evidence masks and especially the kind used by the general population actually have any effect on the spread of COVID-19.
  - triceratops 6y ago
    You forgot one benefit of masks. They act as a persistent, physical reminder to socially distance. The presence of Covid is an infringement on my freedom of movement. I'm happy to try something that might work, if it may help me get that freedom back, particularly if there are no major downsides. Compared to the massive restrictions on personal freedom in a pandemic, an ever so slight difficulty in breathing with a mask is nothing. > But don’t forget there just is not a whole lot of convincing evidence masks and especially the kind used by the general population actually have any effect on the spread of COVID-19. This is still a very new disease. Conclusive studies conducted with statistical rigor will take a long time. Right now, we have a plausible explanation for why cloth masks or N95s without outlets work (they block large droplets from being emitted), and lots of anecdotal evidence in favor. Masks look like a decent bet to make, compared to the alternatives. If we find out later they don't work, we haven't lost much by trying them.
    - tinus_hn 6y ago
      It’s all conjecture mixed with a bit of ‘if it doesn’t help it doesn’t hurt’. Whatever you want but don’t pretend there’s any evidence when there isn’t. Because there isn’t.
      - triceratops 6y ago
        There's plenty of evidence. If you want to live in denial I can't help you. I do worry about how we'll respond to climate change when there are attitudes like this. Also, I've been assuming so far that you were debating in good faith so I didn't ask. Where is the evidence that masks don't work? Can you cite any studies?
    - anoncake 6y ago
      > You forgot one benefit of masks. They act as a persistent, physical reminder to socially distance. Forcing people to remind everyone around them to socially isolate, even if they disagree with that, is not a benefit. > The presence of Covid is an infringement on my freedom of movement. Are you particularly at risk or just a coward? > I'm happy to try something that might work, if it may help me get that freedom back, particularly if there are no major downsides. You are willing to force everyone else to wear masks and socially isolate to get your own freedom back. No wonder you don't see any major downsides.
      - triceratops 6y ago
        > even if they disagree with that, is not a benefit. The time for "disagree" is long past. Viruses and pandemics aren't a matter of opinion. Facts don't care about your feelings. I'm a coward. Got no problems admitting that. I also have elderly relatives who I don't want getting sick and potentially dying. The sooner this pandemic is gone, the better I'll feel. I actually want everyone to get their freedom of movement, freedom of religion (are churches open yet?), freedom to earn a living and pursue happiness back. I'm not just thinking of myself. Sorry if that calculus (freedom of movement + religion + others > freedom from masking) seems wrong to you - maybe we value different things.

Every airline has mask policies in place so natural experiments comparing masked and unmasked flights as the control group are impossible. Deliberately running unmasked flights as a control group is ethically fraught. A statistically rigorous analysis can't be done in this case. This is the best we can get. Requiring masks on flights has very little downside or cost, and potentially big upside.

tinus_hn 6y ago
That’s fine but then you can’t present it as a scientific argument. Choosing a few anecdotes and talking about it as if it is science is dishonest. Face masks are a perfect ‘red herring solution’: - They are very visible so you can see who’s using them - They are slightly inconvenient so it makes users feel they’ve done their part - However slightly, they infringe on the basic right to breathe so people have a reason to rebel against them This causes conflict and gives the users a reason to feel superior - They come with a plausible though difficult to prove or disprove story But don’t forget there just is not a whole lot of convincing evidence masks and especially the kind used by the general population actually have any effect on the spread of COVID-19.
- triceratops 6y ago
  You forgot one benefit of masks. They act as a persistent, physical reminder to socially distance. The presence of Covid is an infringement on my freedom of movement. I'm happy to try something that might work, if it may help me get that freedom back, particularly if there are no major downsides. Compared to the massive restrictions on personal freedom in a pandemic, an ever so slight difficulty in breathing with a mask is nothing. > But don’t forget there just is not a whole lot of convincing evidence masks and especially the kind used by the general population actually have any effect on the spread of COVID-19. This is still a very new disease. Conclusive studies conducted with statistical rigor will take a long time. Right now, we have a plausible explanation for why cloth masks or N95s without outlets work (they block large droplets from being emitted), and lots of anecdotal evidence in favor. Masks look like a decent bet to make, compared to the alternatives. If we find out later they don't work, we haven't lost much by trying them.
  - tinus_hn 6y ago
    It’s all conjecture mixed with a bit of ‘if it doesn’t help it doesn’t hurt’. Whatever you want but don’t pretend there’s any evidence when there isn’t. Because there isn’t.
    - triceratops 6y ago
      There's plenty of evidence. If you want to live in denial I can't help you. I do worry about how we'll respond to climate change when there are attitudes like this. Also, I've been assuming so far that you were debating in good faith so I didn't ask. Where is the evidence that masks don't work? Can you cite any studies?
  - anoncake 6y ago
    > You forgot one benefit of masks. They act as a persistent, physical reminder to socially distance. Forcing people to remind everyone around them to socially isolate, even if they disagree with that, is not a benefit. > The presence of Covid is an infringement on my freedom of movement. Are you particularly at risk or just a coward? > I'm happy to try something that might work, if it may help me get that freedom back, particularly if there are no major downsides. You are willing to force everyone else to wear masks and socially isolate to get your own freedom back. No wonder you don't see any major downsides.
    - triceratops 6y ago
      > even if they disagree with that, is not a benefit. The time for "disagree" is long past. Viruses and pandemics aren't a matter of opinion. Facts don't care about your feelings. I'm a coward. Got no problems admitting that. I also have elderly relatives who I don't want getting sick and potentially dying. The sooner this pandemic is gone, the better I'll feel. I actually want everyone to get their freedom of movement, freedom of religion (are churches open yet?), freedom to earn a living and pursue happiness back. I'm not just thinking of myself. Sorry if that calculus (freedom of movement + religion + others > freedom from masking) seems wrong to you - maybe we value different things.