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The exercise does definitely have value... My frustration comes from personal experience. I've worked in a few startups where the "size of the error bars" neve

The exercise does definitely have value... My frustration comes from personal experience. I've worked in a few startups where the "size of the error bars" never changes. It is very, very frustrating to see the same optimistic, almost delusional thinking used 3 or 4 years in. Some founders are very, very stubborn and won't listen or look at previous results.

ska 6y ago
That's fair enough. I think a good measure of how an early stage startup is doing is to see how the thinking is evolving. If your CEO is doing the same hand-waving in year 3 that sold the seed round, I agree something has probably gone wrong, and may indicate time to think about a change.