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The vast majority of people don’t internalize statistics at all. They go by experiences. So someone they are close to going from healthy and then suddenly falli

by wincy 6y ago

The vast majority of people don’t internalize statistics at all. They go by experiences. So someone they are close to going from healthy and then suddenly falling ill and dying would be what gets people to pay attention. My 82 year old diabetic grandmother who had a quadruple bypass surgery said “if I die I die, and I’ll follow the rules and wear a mask if they tell me to”, this is a died in the wool Democrat of a woman. The only thing she has seen personally was her ex-husband dying alone in the old folks home because visitation was disallowed. He didn’t get COVID, he died of loneliness, as far as she could tell. So she’s going out to social engagements because she thinks the cure is worse than the disease.

dehrmann 6y ago
The big problems with just "listen to the experts" is we've never actually been in this situation, and it depends which type of expert you talk to. Talk to an epidemiologist and you'll get an idea of how a compliant society can stop the disease. Talk to an economist and you'll hear how to minimize economic impact. Talk to a psychologist and you'll hear about mental health, compliance, fatigue. Talk to a political scientist and you might hear about China making a move on Hong Kong. This is a complex system, and there aren't really systemic experts.
- petertodd 6y ago
  > Talk to a psychologist I actually happened to do exactly that in late Feburary, and he pointed out that about 1% of the population die every year naturally, and WWII killed double-digits in many countries, so COVID-19 killing ~3% was certainly something civilization could survive (remember that the early fatality rate estimates were much higher than they are now, and the vast differences in fatality rate by age weren't yet known). Dunno what he might have said to if I had been a patient. But certainly part of that job is to put things in perspective!
godelski 6y ago
I think a lot of the elderly have already faced death. I know for years my grandma has almost welcomed death. It isn't scary to her. So I think many of these people think "so what, I might die this year instead of 6 months later, I'm just going to make the most of whatever time I have left." It definitely makes sense considering the uncertainness of the future for them and rapidly declining cognitive and mental functions. While being younger we're trying to maximize time. Even time with the elderly. Different cost functions.

by wincy 6y ago

dehrmann 6y ago

The big problems with just "listen to the experts" is we've never actually been in this situation, and it depends which type of expert you talk to. Talk to an epidemiologist and you'll get an idea of how a compliant society can stop the disease. Talk to an economist and you'll hear how to minimize economic impact. Talk to a psychologist and you'll hear about mental health, compliance, fatigue. Talk to a political scientist and you might hear about China making a move on Hong Kong. This is a complex system, and there aren't really systemic experts.

petertodd 6y ago
> Talk to a psychologist I actually happened to do exactly that in late Feburary, and he pointed out that about 1% of the population die every year naturally, and WWII killed double-digits in many countries, so COVID-19 killing ~3% was certainly something civilization could survive (remember that the early fatality rate estimates were much higher than they are now, and the vast differences in fatality rate by age weren't yet known). Dunno what he might have said to if I had been a patient. But certainly part of that job is to put things in perspective!

godelski 6y ago

I think a lot of the elderly have already faced death. I know for years my grandma has almost welcomed death. It isn't scary to her. So I think many of these people think "so what, I might die this year instead of 6 months later, I'm just going to make the most of whatever time I have left." It definitely makes sense considering the uncertainness of the future for them and rapidly declining cognitive and mental functions. While being younger we're trying to maximize time. Even time with the elderly. Different cost functions.