3 ms·

The IFR of covid is 0.125%. So this would make it 0.6%.

• ddingus 6y ago
  Infection Fatality Ratio isn't the same thing. What I did was take outcomes to arrive at death rates as an outcome. (Dead people/Recovered people) is roughly 4 to 5 percent. IFR mixes yet to be determined outcomes with already determined outcomes. This understates the risk, could be considered best case. That is: (Dead People/(people currently sick+recovered people)) If everyone currently infected will live, the IFR is a very best case assumption. On the other hand, if all those currently sick people were to die, that is a worst case scenario. In my view, anyone gauging their risk on IFR is doing so on a very wide error margin and said error understates real risk considerably. None of this takes post infection effects into account. Living, but with organ damage is a real thing and we have poor data on it. The chance of that happening is currently higher than outcome death rates are.
  • rogerkirkness 6y ago
    It's not yet to be determined. Cases misses most infections because they're usually mild. Science knows how many people were infected as a result of serological studies that constantly reproduce the same rates of surveillance (cases) and infections (reality).
    • ddingus 6y ago
      How is a case in progress not yet to be determined as a matter of outcomes? By definition, in progress means we have no outcome.
• ddingus 6y ago
  Oh, yes. In terms of the math, thank you. Agreed.