4 ms·

There are plenty of manufacturers behind the curve that will be buying credits for the foreseeable future.

• marvin 6y ago
  The irony is that some of them will go bankrupt because they're unable to compete once electric vehicles become the obviously best option. So no more credits maybe, but also less competition.
  • rightbyte 6y ago
    When the battery supply is running smoothly it wont be hard making EVs. ICE vehicles are harder to make.
    • marvin 6y ago
      Everyone assumes that cheap and reliable electric drivetrains and battery packs will shortly be a commodity, available to anyone in the 100 TWh/year volumes that are required to cover the world's road transportation needs. I'm betting that this won't be the case until about two decades from now. Battery cell & pack production will be a strategic requirement for any vehicle manufacturer that wants to produce in volumes > 100,000 vehicles/year. Also, the goal posts aren't fixed -- if your commodity battery packs cost 10% more than those the competition have access to, but are still expensive enough that they make up a substantial portion of the total vehicle cost, you won't be able to compete. So even though battery cells will eventually reach a point where it's "easy" to make an EV, there will already be enough competitors that make it economically impossible for new entrants to compete.