3 ms·

Done. Agreed, very good call. Current death rates are 4 to 5 percent. (Dead / recovered) And that is coarse as recovered numbers are harder to get at times.

Done. Agreed, very good call. Current death rates are 4 to 5 percent. (Dead / recovered) And that is coarse as recovered numbers are harder to get at times. But, just say that's in the ballpark. What does basically 6x mean? Is it 0.05 * 6 = roughly 30 percent? Or, in more coarse terms, anywhere from 1 in 5 to 1 in 3 chance of death as opposed to roughly 1 in 20 or maybe 30?

just-juan-post 6y ago
Yeah that sounds about right. Somewhere between 1 and 3 billion people will die this winter due to the flu + covid combo. Sounds about right.
rogerkirkness 6y ago
The IFR of covid is 0.125%. So this would make it 0.6%.
- ddingus 6y ago
  Infection Fatality Ratio isn't the same thing. What I did was take outcomes to arrive at death rates as an outcome. (Dead people/Recovered people) is roughly 4 to 5 percent. IFR mixes yet to be determined outcomes with already determined outcomes. This understates the risk, could be considered best case. That is: (Dead People/(people currently sick+recovered people)) If everyone currently infected will live, the IFR is a very best case assumption. On the other hand, if all those currently sick people were to die, that is a worst case scenario. In my view, anyone gauging their risk on IFR is doing so on a very wide error margin and said error understates real risk considerably. None of this takes post infection effects into account. Living, but with organ damage is a real thing and we have poor data on it. The chance of that happening is currently higher than outcome death rates are.
  - rogerkirkness 6y ago
    It's not yet to be determined. Cases misses most infections because they're usually mild. Science knows how many people were infected as a result of serological studies that constantly reproduce the same rates of surveillance (cases) and infections (reality).
    - ddingus 6y ago
      How is a case in progress not yet to be determined as a matter of outcomes? By definition, in progress means we have no outcome.
- ddingus 6y ago
  Oh, yes. In terms of the math, thank you. Agreed.
suifbwish 6y ago
I believe your math is correct unfortunately

just-juan-post 6y ago

Yeah that sounds about right. Somewhere between 1 and 3 billion people will die this winter due to the flu + covid combo. Sounds about right.

rogerkirkness 6y ago

The IFR of covid is 0.125%. So this would make it 0.6%.

ddingus 6y ago
Infection Fatality Ratio isn't the same thing. What I did was take outcomes to arrive at death rates as an outcome. (Dead people/Recovered people) is roughly 4 to 5 percent. IFR mixes yet to be determined outcomes with already determined outcomes. This understates the risk, could be considered best case. That is: (Dead People/(people currently sick+recovered people)) If everyone currently infected will live, the IFR is a very best case assumption. On the other hand, if all those currently sick people were to die, that is a worst case scenario. In my view, anyone gauging their risk on IFR is doing so on a very wide error margin and said error understates real risk considerably. None of this takes post infection effects into account. Living, but with organ damage is a real thing and we have poor data on it. The chance of that happening is currently higher than outcome death rates are.
- rogerkirkness 6y ago
  It's not yet to be determined. Cases misses most infections because they're usually mild. Science knows how many people were infected as a result of serological studies that constantly reproduce the same rates of surveillance (cases) and infections (reality).
  - ddingus 6y ago
    How is a case in progress not yet to be determined as a matter of outcomes? By definition, in progress means we have no outcome.
ddingus 6y ago
Oh, yes. In terms of the math, thank you. Agreed.

suifbwish 6y ago

I believe your math is correct unfortunately