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"Suppose ... there is a fascist party ... and that they have a constituency that amounts to 1% of the electorate" Given a legislature of 600 representatives, a
by innes 15y ago
"Suppose ... there is a fascist party ... and that they have a constituency that amounts to 1% of the electorate"
Given a legislature of 600 representatives, a party with 1% support would have a vanishingly small chance of winning a majority.
- lyudmil 15y agoEven if you consider running consistently over a long period of time? Also, my hypotheticals were meant to be such that you wouldn't take even vanishingly small chances. If you are willing to, then I failed in my argument.
- william42 15y agoThe chance of a party with 1% support getting 300 or more seats out of 600 is roughly on the order of 0.04^300.* This number is so small that you're probably better off worrying about a literal biological virus that turns people into fascists. *The factor of 4 comes from the rate of growth of the central binomial coefficients.