Speaking of global trends. The famous Limits to Growth report was published in 1972. In 2008, Graham Turner wrote "A Comparison of The Limits to Growth with 3

Speaking of global trends. The famous Limits to Growth report was published in 1972. In 2008, Graham Turner wrote "A Comparison of The Limits to Growth with 30 Years of Reality" where he compared 30 years of historical data to The Limits to Growth, he found the data to match the "business as usual" scenario. Then, in 2012, Turner did another take using 40 years of data. Again, the data matched the "business as usual" scenario. The point here is that The Limits to Growth "business as usual" scenario predicts a collapse of the global system by the mid 21st century, with first signs appearing somewhere between 2015 and 2030. This Global Trends report, like many other future-probing reports, do not seem to place much emphasis to the megatrends explored in The Limits to Growth. I find it strange, since resource depletion, environmental/climate problems and sudden population drops certainly would have a massive impact on everything and completely perturb e.g. the geopolitical landscape. Of course the "business as usual" isn't going to end up exactly as described. But, since according to Turner, the data in 2012 was more or less tracking the "business as usual", factoring it in might perhaps make for more robust predictions.