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Conversely I see the tipping point fast approaching for electric cars, but not necessarily for Tesla. The fact that one electric car manufacturer has been succ

Conversely I see the tipping point fast approaching for electric cars, but not necessarily for Tesla. The fact that one electric car manufacturer has been successful means that the infrastructure and support for electric cars gets built out. This takes away the largest entrenched advantage that gas powered cars have. The first mover in electric cars has to push against the enormous headwind of charging stations/battery costs/regulations/repair services etc... The fact that Tesla succeeded despite this, shows me that the bend of the hockey stick is fast approaching. You are correct that there is only a limited pool of 'status buyers', and that most cars are bought by people who just want an appliance. However the status buyers only need to carry things far enough for battery prices to fall, and charging stations to become normalized. Once that happens it is easy to see the best option for 'John Smith business commuter' is an electric car. However, those buyers won't pay for a premium nameplate.

kjksf 6y ago
You imply that Tesla is premium nameplate and therefore won't grow in the future as much as other, non-premium, nameplates. That's not true. Tesla's cost to value ratio is the best in the business. Yes, you can find a cheaper electric car but it'll also be a much worse car than Model 3. If you spec VW's ID.3 or ID.4 to the closest Model 3 / Y, you'll find that you're paying about the same for less (less range, smaller screen, software that is generation behind, no supercharging network and more). Additionally, Tesla's profit margins are the best in the car business (not just electric car business) while reports say that VW is loosing $3-$4k per car and doesn't expect to have them profitable until 2025. Or compare the prices of just unveiled GM's Hummer EV with prices of Cybertruck. Hummer is 30-50% more expensive. The first truly mass market car, the one that tips the scale towards electric cars, will also come from Tesla, not from any other car maker. Tesla already announced $25k in 2022. No-one else is even close to producing a decent EV at such price.
- conk 6y ago
  Base model Cybertruck: $40k Base model Hummer EV: $80k Both 250 mile range, 2 wheel drive. That’s 1/2 the price. Heck you can get the top of the line cybertruck with 500 mile range for less than the base hummer.

kjksf 6y ago

You imply that Tesla is premium nameplate and therefore won't grow in the future as much as other, non-premium, nameplates. That's not true. Tesla's cost to value ratio is the best in the business. Yes, you can find a cheaper electric car but it'll also be a much worse car than Model 3. If you spec VW's ID.3 or ID.4 to the closest Model 3 / Y, you'll find that you're paying about the same for less (less range, smaller screen, software that is generation behind, no supercharging network and more). Additionally, Tesla's profit margins are the best in the car business (not just electric car business) while reports say that VW is loosing $3-$4k per car and doesn't expect to have them profitable until 2025. Or compare the prices of just unveiled GM's Hummer EV with prices of Cybertruck. Hummer is 30-50% more expensive. The first truly mass market car, the one that tips the scale towards electric cars, will also come from Tesla, not from any other car maker. Tesla already announced $25k in 2022. No-one else is even close to producing a decent EV at such price.

conk 6y ago
Base model Cybertruck: $40k Base model Hummer EV: $80k Both 250 mile range, 2 wheel drive. That’s 1/2 the price. Heck you can get the top of the line cybertruck with 500 mile range for less than the base hummer.