3 ms·

Coronaviruses mutate quite slowly, this one has been around for less than a year, you would not expect to see much change in virulence over that timespan. Any l

Coronaviruses mutate quite slowly, this one has been around for less than a year, you would not expect to see much change in virulence over that timespan. Any lowering of mortality is best explained by more thorough testing.

rossdavidh 6y ago
From https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/04/200409085644.htm https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/04/200409085644.h... "There are too many rapid mutations to neatly trace a COVID-19 family tree. We used a mathematical network algorithm to visualise all the plausible trees simultaneously," said geneticist Dr Peter Forster, lead author from the University of Cambridge. Also here: https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/05/200505190550.htm https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/05/200505190550.h... "They identified 198 mutations that appear to have independently occurred more than once, which may hold clues to how the virus is adapting..." It may "mutate quite slowly" compared to, say, influenza, but compared to anything else it is mutating quite a lot, in only a matter of months. Virus generations are pretty fast.
- HarryHirsch 6y ago
  This report takes the exact opposite viewpoint: https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02544-6 https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02544-6 "A typical SARS-CoV-2 virus accumulates only two single-letter mutations per month in its genome."
  - rossdavidh 6y ago
    Interesting article! But, from that very article: "Despite the virus’s sluggish mutation rate, researchers have catalogued more than 12,000 mutations in SARS-CoV-2 genomes." Now, that doesn't tell us that these mutations matter, but that's because we don't know which ones matter. But even a rate of two single-letter mutations per month could theoretically result in 2^10 different variants in less than a year. It almost certainly won't, because many of the mutations will be the same (some parts of the genome almost certainly are more likely to mutate than others). But a rate of 2 single-letter mutations per month, is not much of a limit. The nature article you reference (for which thanks, btw) says its mutation rate is about half of influenza's. Which is, yes, less, but that's still really fast compared to almost anything that isn't influenza. Even a slow-mutating virus is still mutating fast.

rossdavidh 6y ago

From https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/04/200409085644.htm https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/04/200409085644.h... "There are too many rapid mutations to neatly trace a COVID-19 family tree. We used a mathematical network algorithm to visualise all the plausible trees simultaneously," said geneticist Dr Peter Forster, lead author from the University of Cambridge. Also here: https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/05/200505190550.htm https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/05/200505190550.h... "They identified 198 mutations that appear to have independently occurred more than once, which may hold clues to how the virus is adapting..." It may "mutate quite slowly" compared to, say, influenza, but compared to anything else it is mutating quite a lot, in only a matter of months. Virus generations are pretty fast.

HarryHirsch 6y ago
This report takes the exact opposite viewpoint: https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02544-6 https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02544-6 "A typical SARS-CoV-2 virus accumulates only two single-letter mutations per month in its genome."
- rossdavidh 6y ago
  Interesting article! But, from that very article: "Despite the virus’s sluggish mutation rate, researchers have catalogued more than 12,000 mutations in SARS-CoV-2 genomes." Now, that doesn't tell us that these mutations matter, but that's because we don't know which ones matter. But even a rate of two single-letter mutations per month could theoretically result in 2^10 different variants in less than a year. It almost certainly won't, because many of the mutations will be the same (some parts of the genome almost certainly are more likely to mutate than others). But a rate of 2 single-letter mutations per month, is not much of a limit. The nature article you reference (for which thanks, btw) says its mutation rate is about half of influenza's. Which is, yes, less, but that's still really fast compared to almost anything that isn't influenza. Even a slow-mutating virus is still mutating fast.