4 ms·
Any pointers or papers for someone who's just getting into this?
by fastbluewave 6y ago
Any pointers or papers for someone who's just getting into this?
- thom 6y agoThere's probably some interesting work to be done more from a survival analysis angle. I know I haven't seen much work based on stuff like: https://www.academia.edu/37585525/Flexible_Regression_Models_for_Count_Data_Based_on_Renewal_Processes_The_Countr_Package https://www.academia.edu/37585525/Flexible_Regression_Models... I do generally find these top-down team-strength models quite primitive though. Teams are made up of players, plans, all sorts of under-studied interactions. I would also say that there are enough quant jobs in football now that you don't really need to gamble to make a living. :)
- hogFeast 6y agoDixon-Coles, Ntzoufras, McHale, there are a few papers on Bivariate models from German authors (Groll...so google "Groll bivaraite Poisson"). I would also understand ranking algorithms (there is a book called Who's #1?). Bear in mind though, most papers are fictional/p-hacked/just bad. I would also think carefully about what you are doing and why. Most people fail because they try to bet on markets that are, for them, unbeatable (for example, football data is expensive). It is far easier to pick off obscure markets (I did not do this because I had a junior high school maths education and needed some guidance).