3 ms·

>Sweden is changing its COVID-19 strategy — but virologist Dr. Lena Einhorn says it's far too little, too late. What does she mean 'too little, too late'. Swed

>Sweden is changing its COVID-19 strategy — but virologist Dr. Lena Einhorn says it's far too little, too late. What does she mean 'too little, too late'. Sweden's pandemic impact is inline with the rest of Europe (for good or bad). It looks to be right in the middle of the EU pack. But they didn't lockdown, and the hard large-scale spring lockdowns seem to have been a big, costly mistake. Also, I'm not sure how much credence to give to public health opinions of a 'virologist', as opposed to an 'epidemiologist.

watt 6y ago
The lockdown happened because we had no masks. Simply had none. Once manufacturing geared up and masks started appearing, the lockdown could be lifted. It's bit weird though seeing all those people with fabric masks around when 3-layer masks are available. Yeah, hard to breathe in a 3-layer mask, but imagine how much worse it will be once you get the virus.
- macspoofing 6y ago
  >The lockdown happened because we had no masks. Simply had none. Masks have their place, but they aren't "be-all and end-all" of policy. In fact, if all you do is mask, they don't work very well. You need to pair them with social distancing and other measures. At the time we locked-down though, most public health agencies, including WHO, was not recommending masking for the public. We locked down because we didn't know how bad the virus was. Numbers like 3-5% infection mortality rate were being thrown around (which was scary). It wasn't because of lack of PPE.
  - pashamur 6y ago
    Noone was taking the 3-5% mortality rate seriously - if you look at the cruise ship studies (the only truly random / fully tested environments), it was fairly obvious early on that the true CFR rate was closer to 0.5% or even lower, or around 5-10x that of the flu. The lockdown was primarily aimed an not overwhelming the hospital system, primarily based on early reports from Wuhan of overloaded hospitals, and then the videos from Bergamo and early NY data. Masks not working very well - citation needed. I was in Hong Kong since January, where there was early mask wearing (since mid-January); the virus was introduced from China multiple times, but never took hold there. The social distancing there was so-so. The main keys to avoiding mass spread were: straightforward access to testing, isolation (!) of confirmed cases in hospitals / dedicated housing (and not at home unlike western countries), mandatory testing & forced quarantine of all incoming travelers, and mask wearing.
- majewsky 6y ago
  (Context: I'm from Germany.) In retrospect, with the 20/20 vision of hindsight, the one thing all Western governments should have done differently early on is not to focus on "don't buy surgical masks (because we need them for hospital staff)". Instead, they should have said: "Everyone get out your sewing machines and make face masks for your friends and family." Publish sewing patterns and instructions for free on a government website. Maybe even video tutorials. My mother happened to have all the materials at hand, so I got a dozen high-quality reusable cloth masks early on.
_Microft 6y ago
It is not true that they did well economically. Here is a chart in which countries with either similiar confirmed deaths per million people or comparable economic contraction are charted. https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/q2-gdp-growth-vs-confirmed-deaths-due-to-covid-19-per-million-people?country=DNK~ITA~LTU~NOR~KOR~ESP~SWE~TWN~GBR https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/q2-gdp-growth-vs-confirme... Sweden had horribly high number of deaths compared to others with the same or less economic contraction. Among these countries faring better than Sweden are Norway, Denmark and Finland. Sweden did economically well compared to others with the same relative number of deaths, though. You might call it the one-eyed king in the land of the blind if you like.
- macspoofing 6y ago
  >Sweden had horribly high number of deaths compared to others with the same or less economic contraction. Sweden, like New York, made one huge mistake. They didn't protect their retirement homes. Swedish high death count, as well as New York's, can largely attributed to this huge mistake. In hindsight, the Swedish approach does look like the right one, but we'll know for sure after the dust settles and this pandemic is behind us.
- johbjo 6y ago
  There were rural regions in Sweden with no deaths and where the economy was essentially uninterrupted. The urban regions, however, were already in the "exponential wall" when covid became a news story. The difference with Norway, Denmark and Finland is that their urban regions did not have early outbreaks.

watt 6y ago

The lockdown happened because we had no masks. Simply had none. Once manufacturing geared up and masks started appearing, the lockdown could be lifted. It's bit weird though seeing all those people with fabric masks around when 3-layer masks are available. Yeah, hard to breathe in a 3-layer mask, but imagine how much worse it will be once you get the virus.

macspoofing 6y ago
>The lockdown happened because we had no masks. Simply had none. Masks have their place, but they aren't "be-all and end-all" of policy. In fact, if all you do is mask, they don't work very well. You need to pair them with social distancing and other measures. At the time we locked-down though, most public health agencies, including WHO, was not recommending masking for the public. We locked down because we didn't know how bad the virus was. Numbers like 3-5% infection mortality rate were being thrown around (which was scary). It wasn't because of lack of PPE.
- pashamur 6y ago
  Noone was taking the 3-5% mortality rate seriously - if you look at the cruise ship studies (the only truly random / fully tested environments), it was fairly obvious early on that the true CFR rate was closer to 0.5% or even lower, or around 5-10x that of the flu. The lockdown was primarily aimed an not overwhelming the hospital system, primarily based on early reports from Wuhan of overloaded hospitals, and then the videos from Bergamo and early NY data. Masks not working very well - citation needed. I was in Hong Kong since January, where there was early mask wearing (since mid-January); the virus was introduced from China multiple times, but never took hold there. The social distancing there was so-so. The main keys to avoiding mass spread were: straightforward access to testing, isolation (!) of confirmed cases in hospitals / dedicated housing (and not at home unlike western countries), mandatory testing & forced quarantine of all incoming travelers, and mask wearing.
majewsky 6y ago
(Context: I'm from Germany.) In retrospect, with the 20/20 vision of hindsight, the one thing all Western governments should have done differently early on is not to focus on "don't buy surgical masks (because we need them for hospital staff)". Instead, they should have said: "Everyone get out your sewing machines and make face masks for your friends and family." Publish sewing patterns and instructions for free on a government website. Maybe even video tutorials. My mother happened to have all the materials at hand, so I got a dozen high-quality reusable cloth masks early on.

_Microft 6y ago

It is not true that they did well economically. Here is a chart in which countries with either similiar confirmed deaths per million people or comparable economic contraction are charted. https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/q2-gdp-growth-vs-confirmed-deaths-due-to-covid-19-per-million-people?country=DNK~ITA~LTU~NOR~KOR~ESP~SWE~TWN~GBR https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/q2-gdp-growth-vs-confirme... Sweden had horribly high number of deaths compared to others with the same or less economic contraction. Among these countries faring better than Sweden are Norway, Denmark and Finland. Sweden did economically well compared to others with the same relative number of deaths, though. You might call it the one-eyed king in the land of the blind if you like.

macspoofing 6y ago
>Sweden had horribly high number of deaths compared to others with the same or less economic contraction. Sweden, like New York, made one huge mistake. They didn't protect their retirement homes. Swedish high death count, as well as New York's, can largely attributed to this huge mistake. In hindsight, the Swedish approach does look like the right one, but we'll know for sure after the dust settles and this pandemic is behind us.
johbjo 6y ago
There were rural regions in Sweden with no deaths and where the economy was essentially uninterrupted. The urban regions, however, were already in the "exponential wall" when covid became a news story. The difference with Norway, Denmark and Finland is that their urban regions did not have early outbreaks.