3 ms·
Not going to argue with you that the field isn't broken -- it very clearly is -- but the problem the article explains is a rather simple one. Your setting coul
by qsort 6y ago
Not going to argue with you that the field isn't broken -- it very clearly is -- but the problem the article explains is a rather simple one.
Your setting could be non-contractual. You might not be able to have reliable data to frame the problem as survival analysis with censored data. You might have different groups of customers with different behaviors.
Assuming a constant failure rate is the same as assuming the underlying process is Poisson, which is not an entirely stupid working hypothesis in many cases.
The moral of the story is "by the love of god look at your data before making dumb models".
- sebastianmarkow 6y agoDifferent population behaviours could be modeled via multi-level models.
- qsort 6y agoThey can, but you start running into problems with the mathematical formulation of your model. For example, Weibull's CF doesn't have a closed form, which means it's hard to find convolutions even with itself, so that finding e.g. the sum of Weibull distributed r.v. is hard, even if they are iid. Again, modeling done right is super hard.