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So far, there's at least one picture of Hunter with a meth pipe that doesn't appear to be manipulated. That seems to indicate there's some non-zero something t

by Natsu 6y ago

So far, there's at least one picture of Hunter with a meth pipe that doesn't appear to be manipulated. That seems to indicate there's some non-zero something there, with how much being up for debate. Also, the ODNI says there's no intelligence pointing to Russia, despite some claims to the contrary. We should probably withhold judgement and let the facts come out. Let people compare the signature on this contract for the laptop with Hunter's, let people forensically analyze the image, etc.

sroussey 6y ago
What I would do is mix in a fake information bomb among real data so it looked authentic. Specifically, I would add fake incriminating emails and then go to Ukraine and pay some people off to fake in the other side as well. It could be invalidated later, but who cares. It would look good enough and people only remember original headlines, not corrections. And if related to an election, only needs to last until election night. Easy peasy.
- jml7c5 6y ago
  >What I would do is mix in a fake information bomb among real data so it looked authentic. This is a dangerous line of thinking because you can apply it to anything you don't want to believe. Beliefs should follow from evidence, not supposition.
weswpg 6y ago
> So far, there's at least one picture of Hunter with a meth pipe that doesn't appear to be manipulated. That seems to indicate there's some non-zero something there, with how much being up for debate. It is already public knowledge that Hunter Biden has addiction issues. How does this photo make you believe the other claims are authentic? I've heard before that a standard disinformation tactic is to sprinkle some truth along with the lies. I'm particularly skeptical of using an unrelated personal problem to assassinate his father's character as being involved in some sort of international business crimes. > We should probably withhold judgement and let the facts come out. Let people compare the signature on this contract for the laptop with Hunter's, let people forensically analyze the image, etc. while you're claiming that reasonable people should withhold judgement, the election is 2-3 weeks away and low-information voters are not going to wait for a forensic analysis to form their impressions. It should be 'innocent until proven guilty', full stop, but you're saying it should be the other way around and that we should keep our minds open to the possibility that he's guilty. Totally backwards.
- Natsu 6y ago
  It makes me think they really have Hunter's files. Whether those other files are real or not is precisely what I'm withholding judgement on so the rest of your comment doesn't really match what I said.
  - deleted 6y ago
    [deleted]
- Amezarak 6y ago
  It is also public knowledge that Hunter Biden was being paid 50k/month by Burisma. I'm not sure why the "new" allegations from the emails are surprising to anyone, or how anyone could instantly dismiss them as disinformation based on the priors we already have. Did anyone think it was pure merit and coincidence that got him hired? The only thing that mattered was the exact details of the corruption and if it matters to you - I personally am quite sure that many, many people on both sides of the political spectrum are engaged in similar behavior.
  - matthewdgreen 6y ago
    > I'm not sure why the "new" allegations from the emails are surprising to anyone, or how anyone could instantly dismiss them as disinformation based on the priors we already have. This is like accepting a cryptocurrency payment because the sender can prove they have access to the public key.
jchw 6y ago
Most misinformation is not simply blatantly false. You have these small kernels of truth surrounded by false or intentionally misleading information. As far as I can tell there is at least as much wrong with the story as there is right.
abstractbarista 6y ago
It's amazing how much Twitter is censoring the picture. Thankfully it's still easily found on Reddit.
coolgeek 6y ago
The most likely scenario was a phone hack with disinfo injected. Who has copies of their text messages on their laptop? Who has PDF copies of emails? https://www.balloon-juice.com/2020/10/19/betty-cracker-asks-we-answer-hunter-bidens-phone-being-hacked-is-the-most-likely-pathway-for-the-information-giuliani-is-peddling/ https://www.balloon-juice.com/2020/10/19/betty-cracker-asks-...
- Natsu 6y ago
  > Who has copies of their text messages on their laptop? Anyone with the My Phone app in Windows and a linked phone. > Who has PDF copies of emails? Those look like they were created, e.g. with a PDF printer, from the originals. They've now released Hunter's signature on the repair form, as well, and claim to have phone calls from him calling about it. So far the "Russian disinfo" campaign is without evidence of that, given that the ODNI says there's no intelligence pointing to that and nothing but anonymous rumors thereof. Doesn't mean anything in these files is true, but some of the details match what we already know. That said, we'll have to wait and see. I don't think Steele's primary Russian subsource is behind this one, though, but it could be like the original Dossier--a mix of salacious but unverifiable statements with true but innocuous statements. Though I think Hunter with the meth pipe is already pretty damaging. That aside, for the best for the public to know all about the future president & his son's Bursima dealings so that it cannot be used as blackmail in the future, no?
  - coolgeek 6y ago
    > Anyone with the My Phone app in Windows Which one of the (allegedly) three Macs was running Windows? > the ODNI says there's no intelligence Ratcliffe says this, not the ODNI. He has zero intelligence background. He lied about his work in the DoJ. Because of those lies, the Senate refused to consider him for the ODNI position for over a year. Ratcliffe has also been surfacing unsubstantiated crap through Johnson's Senate HSGA Committee. He was installed expressly for this purpose
    - Natsu 6y ago

by Natsu 6y ago

sroussey 6y ago

What I would do is mix in a fake information bomb among real data so it looked authentic. Specifically, I would add fake incriminating emails and then go to Ukraine and pay some people off to fake in the other side as well. It could be invalidated later, but who cares. It would look good enough and people only remember original headlines, not corrections. And if related to an election, only needs to last until election night. Easy peasy.

jml7c5 6y ago
>What I would do is mix in a fake information bomb among real data so it looked authentic. This is a dangerous line of thinking because you can apply it to anything you don't want to believe. Beliefs should follow from evidence, not supposition.

weswpg 6y ago

> So far, there's at least one picture of Hunter with a meth pipe that doesn't appear to be manipulated. That seems to indicate there's some non-zero something there, with how much being up for debate. It is already public knowledge that Hunter Biden has addiction issues. How does this photo make you believe the other claims are authentic? I've heard before that a standard disinformation tactic is to sprinkle some truth along with the lies. I'm particularly skeptical of using an unrelated personal problem to assassinate his father's character as being involved in some sort of international business crimes. > We should probably withhold judgement and let the facts come out. Let people compare the signature on this contract for the laptop with Hunter's, let people forensically analyze the image, etc. while you're claiming that reasonable people should withhold judgement, the election is 2-3 weeks away and low-information voters are not going to wait for a forensic analysis to form their impressions. It should be 'innocent until proven guilty', full stop, but you're saying it should be the other way around and that we should keep our minds open to the possibility that he's guilty. Totally backwards.

Natsu 6y ago
It makes me think they really have Hunter's files. Whether those other files are real or not is precisely what I'm withholding judgement on so the rest of your comment doesn't really match what I said.
- deleted 6y ago
  [deleted]
Amezarak 6y ago
It is also public knowledge that Hunter Biden was being paid 50k/month by Burisma. I'm not sure why the "new" allegations from the emails are surprising to anyone, or how anyone could instantly dismiss them as disinformation based on the priors we already have. Did anyone think it was pure merit and coincidence that got him hired? The only thing that mattered was the exact details of the corruption and if it matters to you - I personally am quite sure that many, many people on both sides of the political spectrum are engaged in similar behavior.
- matthewdgreen 6y ago
  > I'm not sure why the "new" allegations from the emails are surprising to anyone, or how anyone could instantly dismiss them as disinformation based on the priors we already have. This is like accepting a cryptocurrency payment because the sender can prove they have access to the public key.

jchw 6y ago

Most misinformation is not simply blatantly false. You have these small kernels of truth surrounded by false or intentionally misleading information. As far as I can tell there is at least as much wrong with the story as there is right.

abstractbarista 6y ago

It's amazing how much Twitter is censoring the picture. Thankfully it's still easily found on Reddit.

coolgeek 6y ago

The most likely scenario was a phone hack with disinfo injected. Who has copies of their text messages on their laptop? Who has PDF copies of emails? https://www.balloon-juice.com/2020/10/19/betty-cracker-asks-we-answer-hunter-bidens-phone-being-hacked-is-the-most-likely-pathway-for-the-information-giuliani-is-peddling/ https://www.balloon-juice.com/2020/10/19/betty-cracker-asks-...

Natsu 6y ago
> Who has copies of their text messages on their laptop? Anyone with the My Phone app in Windows and a linked phone. > Who has PDF copies of emails? Those look like they were created, e.g. with a PDF printer, from the originals. They've now released Hunter's signature on the repair form, as well, and claim to have phone calls from him calling about it. So far the "Russian disinfo" campaign is without evidence of that, given that the ODNI says there's no intelligence pointing to that and nothing but anonymous rumors thereof. Doesn't mean anything in these files is true, but some of the details match what we already know. That said, we'll have to wait and see. I don't think Steele's primary Russian subsource is behind this one, though, but it could be like the original Dossier--a mix of salacious but unverifiable statements with true but innocuous statements. Though I think Hunter with the meth pipe is already pretty damaging. That aside, for the best for the public to know all about the future president & his son's Bursima dealings so that it cannot be used as blackmail in the future, no?
- coolgeek 6y ago
  > Anyone with the My Phone app in Windows Which one of the (allegedly) three Macs was running Windows? > the ODNI says there's no intelligence Ratcliffe says this, not the ODNI. He has zero intelligence background. He lied about his work in the DoJ. Because of those lies, the Senate refused to consider him for the ODNI position for over a year. Ratcliffe has also been surfacing unsubstantiated crap through Johnson's Senate HSGA Committee. He was installed expressly for this purpose
  - Natsu 6y ago