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Vague video. I have never looked at Portugal from a country stability point of view. Let's look together. Unitary semi-presidential constitutional republic "S
by sleepysysadmin 6y ago
Vague video. I have never looked at Portugal from a country stability point of view. Let's look together.
Unitary semi-presidential constitutional republic
"Socialist party" recently took power in the country; 47% of the seats from 36% of the vote. So they have a misrepresentative electoral system that is disenfranchising the vote.
2nd Quarter of 2020: GDP shrank -3.8%
3rd Quarter of 2020: GDP shrank -13.9%
Portugal is in recession.
2013 or so unemployment was at 18% and has been reducing consistently since down to roughly 6%.
Inflation since around 2013 has been very unstable. The country has been teetering on deflation for 7 years in the same period as the high unemployment.
Bank interest rate has been set to 0% since around 2016.
Balance of trade has been negative for at least the last 25 years; the wealth of the country is escaping.
Government debt to GDP is over 100% which is bad; currently at 117.2% reduced from peak of 131.5% in 2016.
The government just balanced their budget.
Corporate tax rate has reduced from 55% down to 21% over the last 35 years.
Personal income tax has increase from 40% to 48% in the last 25 years.
Sales tax is at 23% up from 17% in 2000.
Participation rate was around 60% during the 2000s but during financial crisis reduced to 49% and has increased to around 56%. Huge sign that the incumbant government tinkered with this number to reduce the unemployment figures. Bad sign that other economic numbers have been tinkered with.
Employment rate. 55.8% before Covid, 53.2% now. Unemployment 6.7% to 5.6% now? Confirmed government is erronenously tinkering with the numbers. I would estimate their unemployment rate is up around 10-12% right now.
Minimum wage has increased from 565.83$ to 740.83$. Their unemployment is very high and minimum wage is increasing? This is a very bad sign.
HOLY SHIT, Private debt to GDP peaked around 2012 at 320.8% reduced to around 248.2% currently. This is 148.2% too high. Portugal is in a debt crisis.
Credit rating of BBB. This is the last rating before it's considered 'speculative' or 'junk' so basically Portugal is about to be in financial crisis akin to Greece.
The only good news I can find is that household debt to income has decreased below 100%. It's most recently at 93%.
Portugal is about to go through a very tough decade. Legalization of drugs is the very least of their concerns.