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I don't need to slow down. You've nicely proved it. "The Venezuelan bolivar is not really pegged to any currency" It is. There is an official VEF to USD excha
by neilwilson 6y ago
I don't need to slow down. You've nicely proved it.
"The Venezuelan bolivar is not really pegged to any currency"
It is. There is an official VEF to USD exchange rate. Which means if you get some VEF on the black market you can upgrade it to USD and make a profit. That's the problem.
"So the interest rates will rise."
There is no mechanism by which interest rates can rise unless the government sector permits it. Look at the Weekly tenders for Treasury Bills in the UK. By simply mentioning that the UK would use the Ways and Means Account rises in Treasury Bill rates stopped and reversed and are now negative
Sterling can't go anywhere else - because it doesn't have the feedback loop that kills Venezuela, Argentina and even Zimbabwe, yet again.
30 years of Japan, 10 years of QE elsewhere, and the simple announcement of an account that didn't even get used are the evidence. Sovereign currency markets are supplicants not masters. They get what they are given.
Perhaps time to update your understanding of how monetary operations actually work in reality.
- neilwilson 6y ago"There is an official VEF to USD exchange rate" * Semi-official. They are intervening directly now.
- legulere 6y agoGovernment bonds are still bound to the market setting rates. Why else would e.g. Germany have lower yield than the UK? And Germany doesn’t even have its own currency. http://www.worldgovernmentbonds.com/country/united-kingdom/ http://www.worldgovernmentbonds.com/country/united-kingdom/ http://www.worldgovernmentbonds.com/country/germany/ http://www.worldgovernmentbonds.com/country/germany/
- neilwilson 6y agoNo bonds are bound by market rates that the central bank doesn’t allow. For rates to go up prices must come down, and the central bank can QE at any price to stop that happening whenever it feels like it. Carry on betting against Japan though if you believe otherwise. The widow maker trade has taken many over the years.