8 ms·

The title is still wrong - Sweden has had a lockdown (light, certainly, but not "no-lockdown"), what appears to be a summary of new restrictions has actually be

by dalke 6y ago

The title is still wrong - Sweden has had a lockdown (light, certainly, but not "no-lockdown"), what appears to be a summary of new restrictions has actually been in place for months, and there's nothing in the article which says there will be new legal enforcements behind the stronger recommendations. If the old policies wasn't a lockdown then the new one isn't either. Those folks you mention seem to deliberately use "no lockdown" to describe Sweden, when clearly (I linked to a source, and gave personal observations) there are restrictions, and so is more accurately "light lockdown". I can't help but wonder how it came to be used in this title. BTW, I looked for mention of upcoming substantial changes at https://www.gp.se/ https://www.gp.se/ and found https://www.gp.se/nyheter/sverige/platserna-i-g%C3%B6teborg-som-kan-begr%C3%A4nsas-mer-vid-ett-coronautbrott-1.35529022 https://www.gp.se/nyheter/sverige/platserna-i-g%C3%B6teborg-... . Google Translate at https://translate.google.com/translate?sl=auto&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.gp.se%2Fnyheter%2Fsverige%2Fplatserna-i-g%25C3%25B6teborg-som-kan-begr%25C3%25A4nsas-mer-vid-ett-coronautbrott-1.35529022 https://translate.google.com/translate?sl=auto&tl=en&u=https... . You can see the changes are in the "sharpness" of the recommendations, and in case of a local outbreak. For example, from "you shouldn't take public transport unless you can book a seat" changes to "you shouldn't take public transport." But it's still as voluntary as it was a few weeks ago, so if we were "no-lockdown" then we'll still be "no-lockdown" tomorrow.

chrisco255 6y ago
My question is, has the spike in cases corresponded with a spike in hospitalizations? My understanding has been that this second wave has been far less deadly throughout the world, and likely because it's hitting younger people, who fend it off relatively easily on average, whereas the first wave tended to hit the most vulnerable (nursing home and assisted living populations).
- jacques_chester 6y ago
  Younger folks are getting it, folks are tested and treated earlier, treatment has improved and viral load has fallen, meaning it's more likely to be fought off with lighter symptoms. The latter is mostly likely due to masks and social distancing.
  - duckMuppet 6y ago
    Isn't the IFR somewhere in the realm of .16%...
  - chrisco255 6y ago
    Swedes by and large do not wear masks, schools have stayed open the whole time, bars and restaurants stayed open the whole time...https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=jqjorS3oYlk https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=jqjorS3oYlk
- dalke 6y ago
  Yes. The stats are at https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/smittskydd-beredskap/utbrott/aktuella-utbrott/covid-19/statistik-och-analyser/bekraftade-fall-i-sverige/ https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/smittskydd-beredskap/utb... . For non-IE browsers see https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/09f821667ce64bf7be6f9f87457ed9aa https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/09f821667ce64bf7be6... for plots. On the right top is "Sjukdomsfall per dag" - "illness cases per day". You can see the big peak ending around early July, and the new peak rising. Of course there's better ability to detect cases. On the right middle is "Nya intensivvårdade fall per dag" - "new intensive care cases per day". IT's about 1/10th of the April peak, but at 2-3/day is several times higher than the low point of 1 about every 2-3 days. On the right bottom is "Avlidna per dag" - "deaths per day". It's harder to tell without smoothing, but it seem to have increased too.
  - netjiro 6y ago
    Cmon Andy. According to the graphs you reference: October incidence is comparable to April, while October hospitalisation is much lower than in April. Have another cup-o-joe and tell me why I'm wrong ;)
    - dalke 6y ago
      I haven't gone by Andy since I was 8 years old. Using an unasked-for nickname feels condescending and even like infantilization - which admittedly is in line with the tone of the your response. The HN guidelines request that we "Be kind. Don't be snarky. ... Please don't sneer, including at the rest of the community." As I wrote in the comment you replied to, "Of course there's better ability to detect cases." I thought that was obvious enough to not need further elaboration. I seem to have been wrong, so I will further clarify. June is roughly when covid screening was available to everyone. Eg, the local pharmacy offers antibody testing. You'll see that's when the number of known cases went up even though the intensive care and death rates decreased. Thus, it makes no sense to compare as you did October's reported case incidence - when widespread testing was available - directly with April's - when it was not. In addition, the question I replied to was "has the spike in cases corresponded with a spike in hospitalizations?" The answer is still "yes". There has been a roughly four-fold increase in reported cases over the last six weeks, and there has been a roughly four-fold increase in the number of intensive care cases over the same period of time. That's by eyeball, so increases might not match that precisely, but it's still a correspondence. Since the lockdown we have is no longer effective at keeping the rates low, it makes sense to "sharpen" the recommendations. Tell me how I'm wrong that that's not a correspondence. And hopefully with less snark.

by dalke 6y ago

chrisco255 6y ago

My question is, has the spike in cases corresponded with a spike in hospitalizations? My understanding has been that this second wave has been far less deadly throughout the world, and likely because it's hitting younger people, who fend it off relatively easily on average, whereas the first wave tended to hit the most vulnerable (nursing home and assisted living populations).

jacques_chester 6y ago
Younger folks are getting it, folks are tested and treated earlier, treatment has improved and viral load has fallen, meaning it's more likely to be fought off with lighter symptoms. The latter is mostly likely due to masks and social distancing.
- duckMuppet 6y ago
  Isn't the IFR somewhere in the realm of .16%...
- chrisco255 6y ago
  Swedes by and large do not wear masks, schools have stayed open the whole time, bars and restaurants stayed open the whole time...https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=jqjorS3oYlk https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=jqjorS3oYlk
dalke 6y ago
Yes. The stats are at https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/smittskydd-beredskap/utbrott/aktuella-utbrott/covid-19/statistik-och-analyser/bekraftade-fall-i-sverige/ https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/smittskydd-beredskap/utb... . For non-IE browsers see https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/09f821667ce64bf7be6f9f87457ed9aa https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/09f821667ce64bf7be6... for plots. On the right top is "Sjukdomsfall per dag" - "illness cases per day". You can see the big peak ending around early July, and the new peak rising. Of course there's better ability to detect cases. On the right middle is "Nya intensivvårdade fall per dag" - "new intensive care cases per day". IT's about 1/10th of the April peak, but at 2-3/day is several times higher than the low point of 1 about every 2-3 days. On the right bottom is "Avlidna per dag" - "deaths per day". It's harder to tell without smoothing, but it seem to have increased too.
- netjiro 6y ago
  Cmon Andy. According to the graphs you reference: October incidence is comparable to April, while October hospitalisation is much lower than in April. Have another cup-o-joe and tell me why I'm wrong ;)
  - dalke 6y ago
    I haven't gone by Andy since I was 8 years old. Using an unasked-for nickname feels condescending and even like infantilization - which admittedly is in line with the tone of the your response. The HN guidelines request that we "Be kind. Don't be snarky. ... Please don't sneer, including at the rest of the community." As I wrote in the comment you replied to, "Of course there's better ability to detect cases." I thought that was obvious enough to not need further elaboration. I seem to have been wrong, so I will further clarify. June is roughly when covid screening was available to everyone. Eg, the local pharmacy offers antibody testing. You'll see that's when the number of known cases went up even though the intensive care and death rates decreased. Thus, it makes no sense to compare as you did October's reported case incidence - when widespread testing was available - directly with April's - when it was not. In addition, the question I replied to was "has the spike in cases corresponded with a spike in hospitalizations?" The answer is still "yes". There has been a roughly four-fold increase in reported cases over the last six weeks, and there has been a roughly four-fold increase in the number of intensive care cases over the same period of time. That's by eyeball, so increases might not match that precisely, but it's still a correspondence. Since the lockdown we have is no longer effective at keeping the rates low, it makes sense to "sharpen" the recommendations. Tell me how I'm wrong that that's not a correspondence. And hopefully with less snark.