Right, but NZ has had a pretty light lockdown compared to other countries. To use the language of other posts, if the "reservoirs" of influenza were uniformly d

Right, but NZ has had a pretty light lockdown compared to other countries. To use the language of other posts, if the "reservoirs" of influenza were uniformly distributed, we'd expect NZ to have more flu than the United States or Europe where (time-integrated) lockdowns have been stricter. Look at the pre-election videos covering campaigning in New Zealand -- crowds of maskless people, politicians hugging supporters etc. Stadiums full of rugby supporters. Not a COVID transmission risk, but wrt the flu it's obviously no different from a regular season -- except for the borders. In San Francisco people are distancing a lot more. It's understandable why we have more COVID cases, but when winter rolls around it'll be very interesting to see if the same difference in flu cases is seen. A non-uniform distribution of reservoirs might be something we can conclude with borders closed.