3 ms·
The US has a mortality rate from car accidents per capita of 0.01%/year(1). The CDC's best guess infection fatality rate estimate(2) for the 20-49 age group is
by petertodd 6y ago
The US has a mortality rate from car accidents per capita of 0.01%/year(1). The CDC's best guess infection fatality rate estimate(2) for the 20-49 age group is 0.02%/infection.
With a conservative herd immunity threshold of 50%, that'd put an uncontrolled COVID-19 pandemic and random car accidents about equal for that age group. For the 50-69 age group, the CDC estimates a 0.5% IFR, so COVID-19 would be 25x higher mortality than random car crashes.
1) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_traffic-related_death_rate#cite_note-1 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_traffic-r...
2) https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scena...
- morsch 6y agoa) IFR is in fact higher according to that research, and b) US roads are far more dangerous than UK roads.
- petertodd 6y ago> IFR is in fact higher according to that research, By "that research" you mean https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.23.20160895v5.full.pdf https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.23.20160895v... right? Because it actually gives a slightly lower IFR than the CDC at age 55 (0.4% vs 0.5%), not higher. So I'm not sure what you mean. > US roads are far more dangerous than UK roads. Yes, according to the WHO(1) the US has a 3.6x higher mortality rate from car accidents than the UK, which gets us to 90x higher for the age group I quoted. Anyway, I didn't want to contradict that figure. Just give perspective. 1)https://www.who.int/violence_injury_prevention/road_safety_status/2015/TableA2.pdf https://www.who.int/violence_injury_prevention/road_safety_s...