4 ms·

Why don't they add in something for comparison, like yearly flu deaths, or road accients so people ca get a real perspective on this. Personally I feel that it

by collyw 6y ago

Why don't they add in something for comparison, like yearly flu deaths, or road accients so people ca get a real perspective on this. Personally I feel that it has been hyped up beyond belief but I am aware that many disagree. It appears to be around 3 times as bad as normal flu season (going by infection fatality rate), yet for flu we don't really bother much at all. A bad flu season may get some attention in the press but not much more, though a bad flu may double the IFR. We are destroying economies because of covid, and I predict that the long term damage will be far worse than the virus. I think its important to keep a sense of perspective.

black_puppydog 6y ago
It seems worse than the flu while we're locking down countries. The same measures applied to regular flu seem to essentially eradicate it (see other thread currently on the front page) while covid is shaping up to overwhelm our healthcare systems here in Europe once again, now that winter is coming. I see this a lot, comparing covid under "lock down, wear masks" treatment with regular influenza under what is really a control treatment...
- collyw 6y ago
  The obvious test for that hypothesis would be Sweden, who's numbers have been pretty similar to most of Europe. The models used to justify lock down predicted 40,000 deaths there and nothing like that occurred.
leipert 6y ago
One thing to consider: This "3 times as bad" happened during summer in the northern hemisphere. Influenza and corona viruses thrive from November to March, so it might likely get worse.
- collyw 6y ago
  True, but I don't see any reason to assume it will be worse this time round for a number of reasons. (The IFR that I am using as a measure has been dropping rather than rising, as tests show way more asymptomatic cases). * Many of the deaths were in care homes, the initial strategy was to send them there (in the countries that got hit early on). I think everyone realised in hindsight that this was a bad decision. * Many of the most vulnerable people will have died already, the population that is left will be fitter and have more immunity. (A study of Mardid care homes showed 61% of residents had antibodies a few months back, and ~30% of staff). * A lot more is known about the virus now. * Everyone's lifestyle has changed massively.
jay_kyburz 6y ago
How can we go back to a world where the normal flu causes so much damage now that we know how easy those deaths are to prevent? We need to find a way to have an economy and maintain social distance. It might mean wearing a mask all the time and staying away from work when you have any symptoms at all!
- collyw 6y ago
  >How can we go back to a world where the normal flu causes so much damage now that we know how easy those deaths are to prevent? Simple. Stop hyping it up in the media. Do you now how many people die in the world every day? Wouldn't it be wise to mention that to keep everything in context? Here is a graphic to help you (you will notice that covid doesn't seem that big of a deal, and that is from the height of the pandemic): https://www.visualcapitalist.com/how-many-people-die-each-day/ https://www.visualcapitalist.com/how-many-people-die-each-da... Or say we go down your route, lock down everything for flu. Then what about cars, plenty of people die in road accidents? The logical conclusion would be that we all end up living like caged chickens, in sterile bubbles with no interaction where we can do no harm. Personally I choose quality of life over quantity.
watwut 6y ago
We close schools for week when fly gets to spread in a city and that is enough to get it under control.
cmurf 6y ago
Since you've got the data wrong, it's any wonder why you'd think it's hype. Around 35,000 die of flu per year in the U.S. And by estimate it'll be 400K COVID-19 deaths by February. That's 10x in terms of deaths alone. That doesn't account for the economic impact. The sheer willful ignorance required to propose that the economic impact is due to policy rather than self-interested reaction to the virus is magnificent. As if restaurants and bars are at partial capacity or closed only because of laws? It's ridiculous. Laws or not, any business model that depended on close social gatherings, were doomed the moment the virus appeared. And the reality is that quite a lot of business models depend in part on people being closer than 6 feet apart, and they were going to feel an economic impact, no matter what. If that weren't true, we wouldn't see the commensurate drop in the common cold and flu. It's like some people just want to be simplistic and shift the blame, just because they don't want to accept the unfairness of this virus. And also don't want to confront its disproportionate unfairness either, because that would mean having to at least consider making it more equitable in a distinctly ME ME ME! culture.
- collyw 6y ago
  400K is an estimate. You say my numbers are wrong, when you are using made up numbers? Number of deaths are tailing off everywhere. I see no reason to expect the number of deaths to go that high in the US. This article estimates between 39 - 56k for flu, more than your number. https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/health/conditions-and-diseases/coronavirus/coronavirus-disease-2019-vs-the-flu https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/health/conditions-and-diseas... Also given what you see in this video, coronavirus numbers are likely inflated due to the way they are calculated. Spain, Belgium and US essentially count every death that tested positive as a covid death. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bHfOcGm5xiA https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bHfOcGm5xiA Sweden coped fine without the panic and fear mongering around coronavirus. Looking at the number of deaths occurring just now the pandemic is essentially over for them. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/

by collyw 6y ago

black_puppydog 6y ago

It seems worse than the flu while we're locking down countries. The same measures applied to regular flu seem to essentially eradicate it (see other thread currently on the front page) while covid is shaping up to overwhelm our healthcare systems here in Europe once again, now that winter is coming. I see this a lot, comparing covid under "lock down, wear masks" treatment with regular influenza under what is really a control treatment...

collyw 6y ago
The obvious test for that hypothesis would be Sweden, who's numbers have been pretty similar to most of Europe. The models used to justify lock down predicted 40,000 deaths there and nothing like that occurred.

leipert 6y ago

One thing to consider: This "3 times as bad" happened during summer in the northern hemisphere. Influenza and corona viruses thrive from November to March, so it might likely get worse.

collyw 6y ago
True, but I don't see any reason to assume it will be worse this time round for a number of reasons. (The IFR that I am using as a measure has been dropping rather than rising, as tests show way more asymptomatic cases). * Many of the deaths were in care homes, the initial strategy was to send them there (in the countries that got hit early on). I think everyone realised in hindsight that this was a bad decision. * Many of the most vulnerable people will have died already, the population that is left will be fitter and have more immunity. (A study of Mardid care homes showed 61% of residents had antibodies a few months back, and ~30% of staff). * A lot more is known about the virus now. * Everyone's lifestyle has changed massively.

jay_kyburz 6y ago

How can we go back to a world where the normal flu causes so much damage now that we know how easy those deaths are to prevent? We need to find a way to have an economy and maintain social distance. It might mean wearing a mask all the time and staying away from work when you have any symptoms at all!

collyw 6y ago
>How can we go back to a world where the normal flu causes so much damage now that we know how easy those deaths are to prevent? Simple. Stop hyping it up in the media. Do you now how many people die in the world every day? Wouldn't it be wise to mention that to keep everything in context? Here is a graphic to help you (you will notice that covid doesn't seem that big of a deal, and that is from the height of the pandemic): https://www.visualcapitalist.com/how-many-people-die-each-day/ https://www.visualcapitalist.com/how-many-people-die-each-da... Or say we go down your route, lock down everything for flu. Then what about cars, plenty of people die in road accidents? The logical conclusion would be that we all end up living like caged chickens, in sterile bubbles with no interaction where we can do no harm. Personally I choose quality of life over quantity.

watwut 6y ago

We close schools for week when fly gets to spread in a city and that is enough to get it under control.

cmurf 6y ago

Since you've got the data wrong, it's any wonder why you'd think it's hype. Around 35,000 die of flu per year in the U.S. And by estimate it'll be 400K COVID-19 deaths by February. That's 10x in terms of deaths alone. That doesn't account for the economic impact. The sheer willful ignorance required to propose that the economic impact is due to policy rather than self-interested reaction to the virus is magnificent. As if restaurants and bars are at partial capacity or closed only because of laws? It's ridiculous. Laws or not, any business model that depended on close social gatherings, were doomed the moment the virus appeared. And the reality is that quite a lot of business models depend in part on people being closer than 6 feet apart, and they were going to feel an economic impact, no matter what. If that weren't true, we wouldn't see the commensurate drop in the common cold and flu. It's like some people just want to be simplistic and shift the blame, just because they don't want to accept the unfairness of this virus. And also don't want to confront its disproportionate unfairness either, because that would mean having to at least consider making it more equitable in a distinctly ME ME ME! culture.

collyw 6y ago
400K is an estimate. You say my numbers are wrong, when you are using made up numbers? Number of deaths are tailing off everywhere. I see no reason to expect the number of deaths to go that high in the US. This article estimates between 39 - 56k for flu, more than your number. https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/health/conditions-and-diseases/coronavirus/coronavirus-disease-2019-vs-the-flu https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/health/conditions-and-diseas... Also given what you see in this video, coronavirus numbers are likely inflated due to the way they are calculated. Spain, Belgium and US essentially count every death that tested positive as a covid death. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bHfOcGm5xiA https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bHfOcGm5xiA Sweden coped fine without the panic and fear mongering around coronavirus. Looking at the number of deaths occurring just now the pandemic is essentially over for them. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/