4 ms·

Apple and oranges. That flu fatality rate is without social distancing.

by noja 6y ago

qwerty1234599 6y ago
And 40% of the population getting a influenza vaccine yearly.
nate_meurer 6y ago
No, IFR is the infection fatality rate. It's the number of fatalities divided by the number of infections. If you reduce the infection rate, the proportion of those infections that results in death will not change. This of course doesn't apply if healthcare systems are overwhelmed, but that's not what we're talking about here.
- noja 6y ago
  We don't test for who has flu.
  - anoncake 6y ago
    That does not affect the IFR, it just make it harder to measure.
    - noja 6y ago
      You don't know the number of people who die who were infected if you didn't test them. I think your argument is only valid when the death rate is the same amongst tested and untested people.
      - anoncake 6y ago
        I don't know how, but epidemiologists are able to estimate it.
  - nate_meurer 6y ago
    > We don't test for who has flu. What? Of course we do. Influenza rapid tests are among the most common diagnostics during flu season. Epidemiologists rely on these tests as well as serological surveillance to derive IFR estimates for the various flu bugs, just as they do for covid. But it doesn't matter. Your assertion was that flu and covid IFR's are "apples to oranges" because we're taking measures to reduce covid infections. This is nonsense on the simplest logical level. Reducing the infection rate doesn't reduce the danger to the individuals who do get infected, as long as the standard of care remains stable.
    - Izkata 6y ago
      They're referring to testing people who aren't sick. I don't know how much it's done in studies in order to get asymptomatic estimates, but we definitely don't try to test everyone who was only exposed, like we are with SARS-CoV-2.
- cma 6y ago
  For flu the commonly cited IFRs out there are restricted to symptomatic people (though still lower than flu CFR, this inflates it relative to seropositivity IFR estimates on covid).
zby 6y ago
Social distancing reduces the number of infections - but it does not change the course disease once a patient is infected. So out of the infected (for IFR or out of the reported case for CFR) there should be the same fraction of fatalities with and without social distancing. Fatality rate is that fraction.

Apple and oranges. That flu fatality rate is without social distancing.

by noja 6y ago

Apple and oranges. That flu fatality rate is without social distancing.

qwerty1234599 6y ago

And 40% of the population getting a influenza vaccine yearly.

nate_meurer 6y ago

No, IFR is the infection fatality rate. It's the number of fatalities divided by the number of infections. If you reduce the infection rate, the proportion of those infections that results in death will not change. This of course doesn't apply if healthcare systems are overwhelmed, but that's not what we're talking about here.

noja 6y ago
We don't test for who has flu.
- anoncake 6y ago
  That does not affect the IFR, it just make it harder to measure.
  - noja 6y ago
    You don't know the number of people who die who were infected if you didn't test them. I think your argument is only valid when the death rate is the same amongst tested and untested people.
    - anoncake 6y ago
      I don't know how, but epidemiologists are able to estimate it.
- nate_meurer 6y ago
  > We don't test for who has flu. What? Of course we do. Influenza rapid tests are among the most common diagnostics during flu season. Epidemiologists rely on these tests as well as serological surveillance to derive IFR estimates for the various flu bugs, just as they do for covid. But it doesn't matter. Your assertion was that flu and covid IFR's are "apples to oranges" because we're taking measures to reduce covid infections. This is nonsense on the simplest logical level. Reducing the infection rate doesn't reduce the danger to the individuals who do get infected, as long as the standard of care remains stable.
  - Izkata 6y ago
    They're referring to testing people who aren't sick. I don't know how much it's done in studies in order to get asymptomatic estimates, but we definitely don't try to test everyone who was only exposed, like we are with SARS-CoV-2.
cma 6y ago
For flu the commonly cited IFRs out there are restricted to symptomatic people (though still lower than flu CFR, this inflates it relative to seropositivity IFR estimates on covid).

zby 6y ago

Social distancing reduces the number of infections - but it does not change the course disease once a patient is infected. So out of the infected (for IFR or out of the reported case for CFR) there should be the same fraction of fatalities with and without social distancing. Fatality rate is that fraction.