4 ms·

Some people will misinterpret the conclusion. It varies significantly by age brackets not considered in the paper. A 40 year old would be mistaken to assume th

by asadkn 6y ago

Some people will misinterpret the conclusion. It varies significantly by age brackets not considered in the paper. A 40 year old would be mistaken to assume their fatality chance is 0.31%.

nickthemagicman 6y ago
Big time. This is a different disease based on different age brackets. Under 48 there basically similar chance of dying as the flu. National health policy should not be based on personal outcomes.
- kgwgk 6y ago
  > Under 48 there basically similar chance of dying as the flu. Numbers? Or maybe "basically similar" means "an order of magnitude larger".
  - nickthemagicman 6y ago
    An order of magnitude times a minuscule number is still a minuscule number. It would take orders of magnitudes of orders of magnitudes to make it un-acceptable levels of risk.
em500 6y ago
Right, according to https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.23.20160895v5.full.pdf https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.23.20160895v... (table 3) its probably just a bit over 0.06% for 40 year olds.
- ojnabieoot 6y ago
  In context - this is less for you than for the "COVID is no big deal" folks - that's 5x the annual likelihood of a 40-year-old dying in a car crash in the United States, and about 60x the likelihood of a 40-year-old dying of the swine flu during the 2009 epidemic. So COVID is in fact very dangerous for 40-year-olds. Pose a thought experiment: if someone said "would you go out drinking with your friends tonight if there was a 10% chance that, for the next 12 months, you'll be 5x as likely to die in a car crash than baseline?" I would say "absolutely not, why would you even ask me this?" and I certainly wouldn't take that risk over-and-over again for such a petty reason.
  - cblum 6y ago
    I confront people who think they'll be ok because "the fatality rate for my age is only, like, 0.1%" with this question: You would play the lottery with those odds, wouldn't you? But you don't want to play that lottery. People don't realize how high odds of 1 in a 1000 are until you flip it around like that.
    - dpc_pw 6y ago
      I take that bet. Easily. 1/ 1000? Ha! Anytime. If it means my kids can go to school, economy doesn't have to crash hard and I don't have to waste a year or more of my life, it's an obvious choice. 1 year is ~1.25% of my life that I will not get back no matter what. Now, anyone is free to stay in their pod and eat bugs, if they're scared.
      - defen 6y ago
        Make a list of 20 ~40 year olds you know. Are you ok with there being a 2% chance that at least one of them dies of COVID?
        dpc_pw 6y ago
        When exactly did our societies became so cuddly, childish, weak and pathetic to even ask these questions? How would this society fight any large scale war? Or make any large scale sacrifice like people fixing up consequences of Chernobyl disaster did? People used to rather die for honor, than live in shame. Had duels, took risky lifestyles, discovering new things and so on. Fought and died for their ideas. And now what? Wrap yourself in a blanket and lie scared on the bed? What's the point of living, if we're too afraid to die to actually live? I am pessimistic on changes of survival of western civilization.
        defen 6y ago
        I dunno, my take on it is how can we fight a large scale war if we can't even stay in our homes for a couple months instead of going out to bars / concerts / sports events. On the scale of sacrifices that is pretty small compared to going to war or fixing a nuclear meltdown, and we can't even manage that.

by asadkn 6y ago

Some people will misinterpret the conclusion. It varies significantly by age brackets not considered in the paper. A 40 year old would be mistaken to assume their fatality chance is 0.31%.

nickthemagicman 6y ago

Big time. This is a different disease based on different age brackets. Under 48 there basically similar chance of dying as the flu. National health policy should not be based on personal outcomes.

kgwgk 6y ago
> Under 48 there basically similar chance of dying as the flu. Numbers? Or maybe "basically similar" means "an order of magnitude larger".
- nickthemagicman 6y ago
  An order of magnitude times a minuscule number is still a minuscule number. It would take orders of magnitudes of orders of magnitudes to make it un-acceptable levels of risk.

em500 6y ago

Right, according to https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.23.20160895v5.full.pdf https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.23.20160895v... (table 3) its probably just a bit over 0.06% for 40 year olds.

ojnabieoot 6y ago
In context - this is less for you than for the "COVID is no big deal" folks - that's 5x the annual likelihood of a 40-year-old dying in a car crash in the United States, and about 60x the likelihood of a 40-year-old dying of the swine flu during the 2009 epidemic. So COVID is in fact very dangerous for 40-year-olds. Pose a thought experiment: if someone said "would you go out drinking with your friends tonight if there was a 10% chance that, for the next 12 months, you'll be 5x as likely to die in a car crash than baseline?" I would say "absolutely not, why would you even ask me this?" and I certainly wouldn't take that risk over-and-over again for such a petty reason.
- cblum 6y ago
  I confront people who think they'll be ok because "the fatality rate for my age is only, like, 0.1%" with this question: You would play the lottery with those odds, wouldn't you? But you don't want to play that lottery. People don't realize how high odds of 1 in a 1000 are until you flip it around like that.
  - dpc_pw 6y ago
    I take that bet. Easily. 1/ 1000? Ha! Anytime. If it means my kids can go to school, economy doesn't have to crash hard and I don't have to waste a year or more of my life, it's an obvious choice. 1 year is ~1.25% of my life that I will not get back no matter what. Now, anyone is free to stay in their pod and eat bugs, if they're scared.
    - defen 6y ago
      Make a list of 20 ~40 year olds you know. Are you ok with there being a 2% chance that at least one of them dies of COVID?
      - dpc_pw 6y ago
        When exactly did our societies became so cuddly, childish, weak and pathetic to even ask these questions? How would this society fight any large scale war? Or make any large scale sacrifice like people fixing up consequences of Chernobyl disaster did? People used to rather die for honor, than live in shame. Had duels, took risky lifestyles, discovering new things and so on. Fought and died for their ideas. And now what? Wrap yourself in a blanket and lie scared on the bed? What's the point of living, if we're too afraid to die to actually live? I am pessimistic on changes of survival of western civilization.
        defen 6y ago
        I dunno, my take on it is how can we fight a large scale war if we can't even stay in our homes for a couple months instead of going out to bars / concerts / sports events. On the scale of sacrifices that is pretty small compared to going to war or fixing a nuclear meltdown, and we can't even manage that.