> A job at Google making $200-400k, having good work life balance and enough time to pursue your hobbies is success. It is also more reliably achievable. Yes.

> A job at Google making $200-400k, having good work life balance and enough time to pursue your hobbies is success. It is also more reliably achievable. Yes. Perhaps restating your point in statistical terms, "Where Are All the Successful Rationalists?" is entirely the wrong question. A rationalist is not particularly interested in outliers and assumes their outcome is no likely to be better than the odds predict. The right question is "What is the median level of success among all rationalists compared to other groups?" My hunch is that you'd find that they do tend to be more successful in the aggregate. If you only look at the set of people who have made a ton of money to draw your conclusions, it would tell you you should buy more lottery tickets.