4 ms·

> Eventually Silicon Valley will end up like Detroit, with abandoned 4-over-1 condo complexes and empty office parks where the software industry once stood. I'

> Eventually Silicon Valley will end up like Detroit, with abandoned 4-over-1 condo complexes and empty office parks where the software industry once stood. I'm certain this will never happen simply due to the superiority of California's climate.

dougmwne 6y ago
I'm certain there are many pleasant and warm places the globe over that are poor and isolated. People go where the jobs are. Nice weather is secondary. If we all start working in VR and location becomes irrelevant, then all bets are off. But why even have cities then?
- vinceguidry 6y ago
  Nice weather really isn't secondary. It's the entire reason Southern California is what it is. Anywhere the weather's nice, people flock. If location becomes irrelevant, that will just make people flock even faster. Everywhere the weather sucks, ask around and you'll find the cheap place people go all the time for vacation, and wish they could live, if they could but afford it. For Atlanta where I live, it's nearby Destin, or Savannah. Nice weather is a primary determinant of where people choose to retire. It pumps land values up 10x or more. I'll turn your argument around and say that the only truly location-dependent industries are extraction based. Everything else moves where the people are. And people will pay through the nose to live where it's nice.
  - shuntress 6y ago
    > I'll turn your argument around and say that the only truly location-dependent industries are extraction based. Everything else moves where the people are. I don't think I would call the transportation industry (as in: ports, trains, planes, and related infrastructure) "extraction based". But that is an example of something very clearly location-dependent.
  - inglor_cz 6y ago
    "Anywhere the weather's nice, people flock" Well, yeah, prior to Covid, Andalusia in Spain was a favorite tourist destination. It really is lovely sitting at 10pm with a sangria in hand on a historic staircase of a palace and watching the nightlife milling around. But all this flocking is temporary. People do not move there to start businesses. (They do to Gibraltar, but that is a tax haven.) They just enjoy they stay, spend some money on recreation and fly back to gloomy-but-rich Amsterdam, London or Hamburg.
- inglor_cz 6y ago
  In Europe, much of the economic growth is concentrated in the countries with colder weather, while the pleasant weather countries (France, Spain, Italy etc.) struggle with high unemployment and economic stagnation. "Nice weather implies good economy" does not seem to pass even the basic correlation test.
  - Apocryphon 6y ago
    Maybe it doesn't imply good economy, but it at least implies desirability for people to live in. Retiree Florida doesn't have a booming economy but it certainly has a steady influx of people moving to there for the environment.
    - dougmwne 6y ago
      Try telling that to the southern Italians. That area of the country is depopulated and also gorgeous. The foreign retirees all move to Tuscany.
      - Apocryphon 6y ago
        Isn't it mainly rural? It's not as if Napa is very crowded.
option 6y ago
I am in tech and can live and work anywhere. I am staying in Bay Area because of climate/geography until taxes are too high to bear (very near that point now)
- kilbuz 6y ago
  Where would you go though? Always interested in hearing people's answer to that.
  - option 6y ago
    In US: Austin, TX. Utah, Maybe Florida. Outside US (taxes could be higher, but what I get in return could be a better deal than CA): Sydney, Australia or Auckland, New Zealand.
    - ghiculescu 6y ago
      Taxes are lower in both those places (source: I moved from Brisbane AU to Austin TX). The idea that the US (and CA in particular) is a low tax place to live is a really successful urban myth. I would try Auckland before you buy. It's cold compared to all your other places.
      - option 6y ago
        lol, CA is certainly not a low tax place :)
aliston 6y ago
It's possible that in 30 years the climate in Detroit will be better than the climate in Northern California. Wildfires and drought could be the new norm.
- focusgroup0 6y ago
  California's climate has been wildfires and drought for millennia, and will continue for the foreseeable future. See the scrub oak (chaparro) plant as an example of an organism native to the area responding to evolutionary pressures of drought and wildfires: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chaparral https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chaparral

dougmwne 6y ago

I'm certain there are many pleasant and warm places the globe over that are poor and isolated. People go where the jobs are. Nice weather is secondary. If we all start working in VR and location becomes irrelevant, then all bets are off. But why even have cities then?

vinceguidry 6y ago
Nice weather really isn't secondary. It's the entire reason Southern California is what it is. Anywhere the weather's nice, people flock. If location becomes irrelevant, that will just make people flock even faster. Everywhere the weather sucks, ask around and you'll find the cheap place people go all the time for vacation, and wish they could live, if they could but afford it. For Atlanta where I live, it's nearby Destin, or Savannah. Nice weather is a primary determinant of where people choose to retire. It pumps land values up 10x or more. I'll turn your argument around and say that the only truly location-dependent industries are extraction based. Everything else moves where the people are. And people will pay through the nose to live where it's nice.
- shuntress 6y ago
  > I'll turn your argument around and say that the only truly location-dependent industries are extraction based. Everything else moves where the people are. I don't think I would call the transportation industry (as in: ports, trains, planes, and related infrastructure) "extraction based". But that is an example of something very clearly location-dependent.
- inglor_cz 6y ago
  "Anywhere the weather's nice, people flock" Well, yeah, prior to Covid, Andalusia in Spain was a favorite tourist destination. It really is lovely sitting at 10pm with a sangria in hand on a historic staircase of a palace and watching the nightlife milling around. But all this flocking is temporary. People do not move there to start businesses. (They do to Gibraltar, but that is a tax haven.) They just enjoy they stay, spend some money on recreation and fly back to gloomy-but-rich Amsterdam, London or Hamburg.
inglor_cz 6y ago
In Europe, much of the economic growth is concentrated in the countries with colder weather, while the pleasant weather countries (France, Spain, Italy etc.) struggle with high unemployment and economic stagnation. "Nice weather implies good economy" does not seem to pass even the basic correlation test.
- Apocryphon 6y ago
  Maybe it doesn't imply good economy, but it at least implies desirability for people to live in. Retiree Florida doesn't have a booming economy but it certainly has a steady influx of people moving to there for the environment.
  - dougmwne 6y ago
    Try telling that to the southern Italians. That area of the country is depopulated and also gorgeous. The foreign retirees all move to Tuscany.
    - Apocryphon 6y ago
      Isn't it mainly rural? It's not as if Napa is very crowded.

option 6y ago

I am in tech and can live and work anywhere. I am staying in Bay Area because of climate/geography until taxes are too high to bear (very near that point now)

kilbuz 6y ago
Where would you go though? Always interested in hearing people's answer to that.
- option 6y ago
  In US: Austin, TX. Utah, Maybe Florida. Outside US (taxes could be higher, but what I get in return could be a better deal than CA): Sydney, Australia or Auckland, New Zealand.
  - ghiculescu 6y ago
    Taxes are lower in both those places (source: I moved from Brisbane AU to Austin TX). The idea that the US (and CA in particular) is a low tax place to live is a really successful urban myth. I would try Auckland before you buy. It's cold compared to all your other places.
    - option 6y ago
      lol, CA is certainly not a low tax place :)

aliston 6y ago

It's possible that in 30 years the climate in Detroit will be better than the climate in Northern California. Wildfires and drought could be the new norm.

focusgroup0 6y ago
California's climate has been wildfires and drought for millennia, and will continue for the foreseeable future. See the scrub oak (chaparro) plant as an example of an organism native to the area responding to evolutionary pressures of drought and wildfires: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chaparral https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chaparral