5 ms·

Is the general consensus that the virus would be eradicated if everyone wore a mask? Is it enough?

by Kiro 6y ago

alex_young 6y ago
If that drops r below 1 long enough it would have to right? This seems especially hard to do though, since compliance would need to be nearly universal. You could potentially wipe out influenza and the common cold at the same time too though potentially.
- jhayward 6y ago
  Influenza and coronaviruses have native (animal) reservoirs that keep pumping out new / novel variants, which makes extinction highly unlikely.
  - deleted 6y ago
    [deleted]
- throwmeaway_pls 6y ago
  What about viral reservoirs?
- wcoenen 6y ago
  Some individuals may stay infectious forever. E.g. Typhoid Mary[1] was quarantined twice, and the second time she remained isolated until death. (Thypoid fever is a bacterial infection, but I assume something similar can happen with a virus.) [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mary_Mallon https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mary_Mallon
  - xenonite 6y ago
    Herpes, HIV...
- Izkata 6y ago
  In addition to the others, there'd be a long tail of few infections before it's actually wiped out, and during that period I expect too many people to just stop caring about masks for it to actually get eradicated.
dehrmann 6y ago
Like a sibling comment said, only if r0 is small, and not just small, but goes-away-fast small. I'm not sure why no one's saying this, but the virus is adapting to masks, and at some point (we don't know when), they'll become less effective. I'd be pushing for switching guidelines to an N95 minimum, and since there are (still?) shortages, remind people they actually last a while, they're effectively disinfected if you leave them on the table for a few days, and it's generally not worth it to wear a mask to go on a walk.
- buzzert 6y ago
  > I'm not sure why no one's saying this, but the virus is adapting to masks Citation needed
  - dehrmann 6y ago
    On one hand, fair. One the other, when have we seen life not adapt?
    - BenjiWiebe 6y ago
      Mice can get through small holes, but they won't adapt to fit through pin holes.
      - jjeaff 6y ago
        I suppose the virus could adapt to spread more easily via surfaces. Or, it could become more virulent, such that fewer particles have to get through the mask to cause infection.
    - deleted 6y ago
      [deleted]
      - jonboy95 6y ago
        alive-ish
    - 6y ago
contravariant 6y ago
This probably depends a lot on the quality of the masks and the whether people wear them properly or not. So far I'm not too optimistic about either.
- rusk 6y ago
  It really doesn’t. Poor quality masks are questionable at an individual level but even if everybody just wore knickers on their head, that would have a gigantic effect on the spread on the virus overall.
  - contravariant 6y ago
    That would be great if true, we'd be able to scale down the social distancing, among other things. That said I'm not nearly as confident that the effect will be that great, do you have any references you're basing this on?

Is the general consensus that the virus would be eradicated if everyone wore a mask? Is it enough?

by Kiro 6y ago

Is the general consensus that the virus would be eradicated if everyone wore a mask? Is it enough?

If that drops r below 1 long enough it would have to right? This seems especially hard to do though, since compliance would need to be nearly universal. You could potentially wipe out influenza and the common cold at the same time too though potentially.

jhayward 6y ago
Influenza and coronaviruses have native (animal) reservoirs that keep pumping out new / novel variants, which makes extinction highly unlikely.
- deleted 6y ago
  [deleted]
throwmeaway_pls 6y ago
What about viral reservoirs?
wcoenen 6y ago
Some individuals may stay infectious forever. E.g. Typhoid Mary[1] was quarantined twice, and the second time she remained isolated until death. (Thypoid fever is a bacterial infection, but I assume something similar can happen with a virus.) [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mary_Mallon https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mary_Mallon
- xenonite 6y ago
  Herpes, HIV...
Izkata 6y ago
In addition to the others, there'd be a long tail of few infections before it's actually wiped out, and during that period I expect too many people to just stop caring about masks for it to actually get eradicated.

dehrmann 6y ago

Like a sibling comment said, only if r0 is small, and not just small, but goes-away-fast small. I'm not sure why no one's saying this, but the virus is adapting to masks, and at some point (we don't know when), they'll become less effective. I'd be pushing for switching guidelines to an N95 minimum, and since there are (still?) shortages, remind people they actually last a while, they're effectively disinfected if you leave them on the table for a few days, and it's generally not worth it to wear a mask to go on a walk.

buzzert 6y ago
> I'm not sure why no one's saying this, but the virus is adapting to masks Citation needed
- dehrmann 6y ago
  On one hand, fair. One the other, when have we seen life not adapt?
  - BenjiWiebe 6y ago
    Mice can get through small holes, but they won't adapt to fit through pin holes.
    - jjeaff 6y ago
      I suppose the virus could adapt to spread more easily via surfaces. Or, it could become more virulent, such that fewer particles have to get through the mask to cause infection.
  - deleted 6y ago
    [deleted]
    - jonboy95 6y ago
      alive-ish
  - 6y ago

contravariant 6y ago

This probably depends a lot on the quality of the masks and the whether people wear them properly or not. So far I'm not too optimistic about either.

rusk 6y ago
It really doesn’t. Poor quality masks are questionable at an individual level but even if everybody just wore knickers on their head, that would have a gigantic effect on the spread on the virus overall.
- contravariant 6y ago
  That would be great if true, we'd be able to scale down the social distancing, among other things. That said I'm not nearly as confident that the effect will be that great, do you have any references you're basing this on?